Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Valspar Championship

This could be the week Eric Cole finally breaks through.

The PGA Tour is quickly turning into the Scottie Scheffler Invitational, as the World No. 1 won the Players Championship to cap off back-to-back victories since switching to a mallet putter. It’s almost impossible to bet into the golf outright market when Scheffler is dominating like this, but he’s thankfully not in the field for this week’s Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Golf Resort (Copperhead Course).

With the best player in the world on the sidelines this week, that opens up more opportunities for players further down the odds board. Here are the three outright bets we’re eyeing up for the Valspar Championship.

Eric Cole (+4000 FanDuel) 

Eric Cole has gotten agonizingly close to securing his first PGA Tour victory a handful of times over the last 13 months, but this could be the week he finally breaks through.

Innisbrook is a tight, tree-lined golf course that demands accuracy off the tee and precision with your approach play. It’s also important to be a good chipper because of how difficult it is to hit greens in regulation on this course, and Cole fits the bill in all of those statistical categories. The American hits 61.2 percent of his fairways off the tee, ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards (a crucial distance this week) and ranks 25th in scrambling. Cole’s outright price is a bit inflated because he’s missed the cut twice in his last three starts, so this is the perfect time to jump on board.

Doug Ghim (+7000 FD)

The Valspar Championship is one of the toughest non-majors on the schedule that tests every aspect of your game, and there aren’t many golfers playing better all-around than Doug Ghim right now. The 27-year-old has recorded five straight top-16 finishes, and he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this season in total strokes gained. Only Scheffler, Wyndham Clark and Xander Schauffele are ahead of him in that all-important statistic.

Ghim ranks 12th in driving accuracy, 13th in strokes gained on approach, 15th in scrambling percentage and 11th in bogey avoidance this year. There’s no weakness in his game right now, so we love the value here at 70/1.

Daniel Berger (+9000 FD)

This is a much riskier outright play, but we like the upside Daniel Berger presents.

A four-time PGA Tour winner, Berger is a proven champion with much more win equity than the other players in this price range. The reason why he’s close to 100/1 is he recently returned from a 19-month absence due to a back injury, and he’s been understandably rusty to start the season. The rust hasn’t been with his ball striking, though, as Berger ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 20th in proximity to the hole. He’s also been one of the best statistical approach players out of the rough, which will come in handy this week on a course with tight fairways.

The issue for Berger has been his short game, as he ranks 173rd in scrambling percentage and 165th in strokes gained from putting. We saw the same trend from Will Zalatoris when he returned from his back injury earlier this year, and he’s since rebounded in the short-game department. When Berger gets his feel back on and around the greens, he’s going to contend in a tournament. Why can’t it be this week?

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