Eric Hovde's Chances of Beating Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin: Polls

Eric Hovde speaks at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin on April 2, 2024. A new poll showed a tight race between Hovde and Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin.

Wisconsin’s Senate election, which will pit Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin against Republican businessman Eric Hovde, is viewed as one of the most important races in November, with a new poll showing likely voters split on who they will support.

A Marquette University poll released on Wednesday showed the race is a dead heat, with 50 percent of likely voters planning to vote for Baldwin, while another 50 percent said they plan to support Hovde in November.

Wisconsin is a key battleground state roughly divided evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Former President Donald Trump narrowly carried it in 2016, but President Joe Biden flipped it back to Democrats in 2020, carrying the Badger State by less than 0.7 percentage points.

It is again expected to be one of the most competitive races in the presidential election, and the Senate race could be key in determining whether Democrats or Republicans hold the chamber in 2025. Baldwin has put up strong performances in the past, winning by more than 10 points in 2018, but polls suggest in 2024, the race will be more competitive.

While the latest poll was tied among likely voters, Baldwin still held an advantage among registered voters—winning them 52 to 47.

Among likely voters, Baldwin won support from 8 percent of Republicans in the latest poll, while Hovde won support from 2 percent of Democrats. Meanwhile, independents broke for Baldwin 32-26.

The poll was conducted among 814 Wisconsin registered voters from April 3 to 10, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Among the 736 respondents who are considered likely voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Hovde campaign celebrated the poll in a statement, describing Baldwin as a “rubber stamp for the Biden agenda.”

“Wisconsinites are ready for a change. This race is a dead heat and we are just getting going,” the statement reads.

Newsweek has reached out to the Baldwin campaign for comment.

An Emerson College poll from March found Baldwin with a slight lead.

In that survey, 45 percent of respondents said they planned to support Baldwin, while 42 percent said are supporting Hovde. That poll was conducted from March 14 to 18 among 1,000 registered voters.

A February 20-24 Emerson College poll found Baldwin winning support among 46 percent of respondents, with 39 percent saying they are backing Hovde.

The Cook Political report, which tracks elections across the U.S., rates the election as “Lean Democrat,” meaning it is “considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage.”

During the first quarter of 2024, Baldwin also outpaced Hovde in terms of fundraising.

According to Federal Election Commission filings, Baldwin’s campaign raised around $4.7 million last quarter and has approximately $10 million on hand. Hovde, meanwhile, raised an estimated $1 million in that time and has around $5.3 million on hand.

He has also loaned his campaign an additional $8 million of his own money.

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