El Niño likely to end June, with La Niña close behind

El Niño likely to end June, with La Niña close behind

THE El Niño weather phenomenon, which has damaged over P4 billion worth of crops and resulted in record highs in temperature, may be over by June.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) chief Nathaniel Servando told The Manila Times via Viber on Friday that El Niño has started to weaken but will continue to affect the country in the coming days.

Servando also said Pagasa could declare the onset of the rainy season at any time between June 1 and June 15.

Pagasa said a La Niña episode could coincide with the wet season and bring more rain than usual.

Servando said 13 to 16 storms could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until the end of the year. Typically, the Philippines experiences about 20 storms annually.

The first weather disturbance will likely enter PAR early next week and will probably affect areas in Mindanao.

Servando said it will be named “Aghon.” Scattered showers are expected during the weekend in extreme Northern Luzon, particularly Batanes and Cagayan.

Another Pagasa official, climate monitoring and prediction chief Analiza Solis, told The Manila Times’ Reel Times streaming program that last April 27 and May 6, the temperature in Tarlac reached 40.3 degrees Celsius, the highest recorded so far.

Last Sunday, the country’s highest heat index of 53 C was recorded in Iba, Zambales.

The heat index measures relative humidity and its effects on the human body.

Solis said the heat index is also a measure of discomfort level, with classifications ranging from caution to extreme danger.

Solis said the period from March to May was one of the country’s warmest dry spells.

“Some of the areas have already surpassed their extreme maximum daytime temperature … in fact, there were nine stations that already surpassed their extreme maximum daytime temperature during the month of April, and six out of those nine stations exceeded their all-time high maximum daytime temperature,” Solis said.

The monitoring stations are in Clark, Pampanga; San Jose, Occidental Mindoro; Casiguran, Aurora; Sangley Point, Cavite; Maasin, Leyte; Malaybalay, Bukidnon; the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Pasay City; Science Garden, Quezon City; and Catbalogan, Samar.

“It so happened that the peak of a strong El Niño episode also happened during warm and dry season months in the Philippines,” Solis said.

Global warming also contributed to the record temperature levels, she said.

Pagasa had predicted as early as last December that the dry season this year could be one of the warmest because of the particularly strong El Niño.

Solis said that while temperatures peaked in April, some areas in the country could still experience warmer-than-usual days in the first half of May.

“There is still a possibility; although there are areas with local thunderstorms and widespread cloudiness, the heat indices are already lowering, as well as our maximum data temperature, so I think this is good news,” she said.

She said the agency predicts a La Niña episode in the next five to six months.

“Once we issue a La Niña alert, that’s the time we are putting higher confidence whether this would develop into a full-blown La Niña or it could start this coming second half of the year,” Solis said.