Could Trump really go to jail? Here's the state of play as his New York trial takes a break

COURT HAS BRIEFLY adjourned in the matter of The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump.

Legal proceedings against the former president will resume on Thursday morning when Stormy Daniels returns to the witness stand for cross-examination by Trump’s lawyers. The former adult entertainment actress took to the stand for the first time on Tuesday to testify against Trump, alleging that she was paid hush-money under false pretences to prevent her from speaking about their alleged 2006 affair in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election.

While there’s a break in play, let’s look at how the trial has unfolded so far, and what we can expect over the coming weeks.

Which of Donald Trump’s many legal proceedings is this?

The trial currently taking place in the New York County Supreme Court building sees Trump charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records with the intent to commit or conceal other crimes. Collectively, the charges allege that Trump lied about his business dealings in order to violate campaign finance laws, interfere illegally in the outcome of the 2016 US election, and commit tax fraud. Among the charges are accusations pertaining to the payment of hush money to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels in order to prevent her from publishing details about a romantic affair the pair allegedly shared in 2006.

In opening statements, the prosecution alleged that Trump, by lying about his finances, “orchestrated a criminal scheme to corrupt the 2016 presidential election”.

Trump is being prosecuted over four different matters. The case brought by the State of New York is the first to be heard by a jury, and also marks the first ever criminal trial of a former US President.

The trial began with a lengthy voir dire process, with lawyers on both sides facing the challenge of picking a jury that doesn’t have a strong, pre-established opinion about Donald Trump, one of the most infamously polarising men in modern history. Reports emerged from the courtroom that Trump repeatedly fell asleep during jury selection over the first five days.

What’s happening in the courtroom right now?

Tuesday saw Stormy Daniels herself take the stand.

Daniels’ testimony went into so much minutiae, at one point, Judge Juan Merchan intervened to request that Daniels provide less detail.Daniels told the court that Trump had not worn a condom when the two had been intimate, that he had given her the nickname “Honeybunch,” that he claimed not to sleep with his wife Melania, and that he told Daniels she reminded him of one of his daughters.

At one point, Daniels “threw back her arm and lifted her leg in the witness box” in order to demonstrate Donald Trump posing for her on a bed. Trump’s defence team called for a mistrial during Daniels’ testimony, arguing that it was unfairly prejudicial against the New York businessman-turned-politician. Trump’s attorney, Susan Necheles, also attacked Daniels’ character, accusing her of seeking to extort money from Donald Trump, and avoid paying legal fees for subverting the terms of her hush-money payment.

Before Daniels took the stand, most of the attention had been directed at Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen. Cohen was jailed himself in 2018 after pleading guilty to eight counts of campaign-finance violations, tax fraud, and bank fraud, all committed while working for Donald Trump. While on the stand, Cohen claimed that he executed many of the falsified payments for which Trump is charged, and the prosecution is relying heavily on material evidence such as text messages, emails, phone calls, bank records and legal communiques provided by Cohen.

Like Trump, Cohen has been making public pronouncements throughout the trial, and in one TikTok post said “Donald Trump 2024? More like Trump 20-24 years,” referring to the sentence Trump could face if found guilty.

The first few days of the trial saw David Pecker, former publisher of the National Enquirer tabloid, cross-examined by both teams. On the stand, Pecker claimed that he served as the “eyes and ears” of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and used his influence to “catch and kill” stories that would be potentially harmful to Trump’s electoral hopes. Pecker said that he was asked to do this in 2015 during a meeting with Trump and Cohen.

Could Donald Trump really go to jail?

It is expected that the trial will carry on for several more weeks, though Trump has proven that he his prepared to disrupt the orderly flow of proceedings.

The 77-year-old has repeatedly attacked the judge presiding over the trial, and has even cast aspersions about Merchan’s daughter Loren, who is a partner at Authentic Campaigns, a progressive political consulting firm. Trump has called the judge a “certified Trump hater” and said “his daughter makes money by working to ‘Get Trump.’”

Trump has taken the opportunity to give press conferences while outside the courtroom, and on Monday called the gag order – the judge’s order to Trump not to talk about the trial – “disgraceful”. He told reporters: “Our Constitution is much more important than jail. It’s not even close. I’ll do that sacrifice any day”.

Having already been held in contempt of court and fined twice for his public tirades, Trump has now been told by Merchan that he could be sent to jail if he refuses to comply with the gag order. While the warning was made in open court, Merchan also told Trump that sending him to jail was “the last thing [I] want to do”.

Speaking on Monday, Judge Juan Merchan told the court: “It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent. Going forward, this court will have to consider a jail sanction”.

The sentence that Trump could face if he is found guilty, however, is significantly more severe. If Trump is convicted on five or more of the 34 counts, he faces a maximum of 20 years in prison.

Would a conviction stop Trump from becoming President?

There is some degree of confusion as to what it would mean for Donald Trump’s election prospects if he does end up being imprisoned ahead of this year’s November showdown against Joe Biden. Trump is his party’s nominee and there is nothing in the US constitution that forbids felons from running for President in the event of a conviction.

Nothing about the outcome of this trial, then, can directly stop Trump from retaking the Oval Office. Conceivably, it’s possible that a conviction would cause his supporters to abandon him, though Trump has maintained popular support among Republicans in the face of innumerable scandals. Recent polls show Trump contesting a very close race against Joe Biden ahead of this winter’s repeat of the 2020 presidential election.

Registered to vote in the state of Florida, though, Trump could find that he is ineligible to vote for himself if convicted, as Florida does not allow convicted felons to vote while serving their sentences. For now, Trump’s immediate fate remains before the court, with proceedings in Manhattan expected to last for at least another few weeks.