Could Steven Stamkos Sign with the Detroit Red Wings?

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Back in 2016, Steven Stamkos was the player who could solve the Red Wings’ woes. With Pavel Datsyuk retiring and the need for a top six center apparent, Detroit was prepared to sign him to a contract if he hit unrestricted free agency. Two days before that could happen, a late push by then-Lightning GM Steve Yzerman kept Stamkos in Tampa, and the Red Wings didn’t land their big fish.

Now, in 2024, Detroit finds itself in a similar boat, but on the opposite end of a lengthy and arduous rebuilding journey since Stamkos signed his last deal. Meanwhile, he has two Stanley Cup rings and nearly had a third in 2022. Now, Stamkos has the option to leave a Tampa Bay organization that’s suffering from that success, having lost some of the depth around him that made those championships possible. At 34, he could actually wind up in free agency, heading to a team that can win him another championship. Hey, he could even land in Detroit this time.

The connections are more than evident. Stamkos grew into the captain and scorer he was under Yzerman back when he was with the Lightning. In fact, nine of his 16 NHL seasons came with Yzerman involved in the front office. Now, Yzerman is entering his sixth season with Detroit, with former Tampa Bay assistant coach Derek Lalonde at the helm for his third season.

The Red Wings appear to be an attractive team to sign with, too, with young stars entering the lineup and a good crop of veterans to lead them forward. They have momentum, just taking off toward being a contender. For an older player of Stamkos’ caliber, that’s an advantageous position. He just put up 40 goals this season, adding five more in the playoffs. He’s two years removed from a 100-point campaign in 2021-22. That sort of scoring could help the Red Wings. They’re looking for scoring depth in the top six, and Stamkos could provide that as much as Detroit could provide Stamkos assistance to do so.

In his end-of-season press conference April 19, Yzerman observed the need for better scoring depth, particularly outside of No. 1 center Dylan Larkin. “When Dylan’s out or we lose a significant offensive player, we need more depth to make up for that.” Yzerman added that an “impact forward” could help make up the difference. “Collectively, you gotta find a way to win games,” Yzerman continued. “If you’re not gonna score four and five a game, you better tighten up defensively. I think, whether it’s within, continued maturation of some of our young guys … we need to generate the offense. … We missed the offensive production when (Larkin) was out of the lineup that we need, whether it’s another centerman or another impact forward at a different position to offset the loss of the offensive production.”

Stamkos might be able to be that offsetting forward, especially with his 40-goal season this year and his ability to score on the power play. But, there are hurdles the Red Wings would have to overcome.

Mainly, Stamkos would come at a big cap hit, especially because other teams are going to try to give him a lucrative payday to buy his services. It’s a similar situation to star scorer Patrick Kane, who Detroit signed during the season but whose future in the Motor City is questionable. The Red Wings have two big contracts to sign for defenseman Moritz Seider and forward Lucas Raymond — two of the young stars that make Detroit such an attractive place to play. Whatever is left over will go toward building out depth to make the roster competitive, and it’s doubtful that enough will be available to sign Stamkos along with other key players. Moving some contracts, like that of defenseman Justin Holl, could free up some cap space to make a signing possible. However, that is just one of the moving pieces that would have to fall in line to make a Stamkos signing possible without jeopardizing the overall competitive depth of the roster. Signing Stamkos isn’t worth it if the rest of the roster isn’t playoff-capable.

Stamkos’ will to play in Detroit is also a factor. Eight years ago, it might’ve been easier to get Stamkos to leave Tampa Bay. He was only eight years in, which isn’t a small amount but is still small enough to make a free agency exit not the most shocking development. Now, look at 16 years and it’s hard to imagine Stamkos leaving the Lightning. He’s still the face of the franchise, even with other stars Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman in the mix. The Lightning are likely to try and keep him home — at least you would think. Stamkos expressed frustration earlier this season that Tampa Bay management hadn’t gotten a deal done with him in the offseason

“I stated at the end of last year, too, I would love to extend and play here and finish out my career here, but that’s out of my hands,” Stamkos said Sept. 20 according to NHL.com. “I can’t write the contract myself.”

Now, Tampa Bay’s front office has to sign him or let him walk — there’s no clock to run out. And while GM Julien BriseBois said in January that he would take into account the state of the team and Stamkos’ role in it with this extension, it’s hard to imagine Stamkos not being counted in the future of the team. Just take it from his coach.

“I don’t know if there will be much conversation. I hope not anyway,” Cooper said Monday night when asked about Stamkos’ contract talks. “He belongs here. We know it, he knows it. We’ve grown up together. He’s a heck of a player, but he’s also, you know, I mean, he controls his own destiny, but I don’t know what’s going to happen. But he feels like a Bolt for life, but only he and Julien can answer that one.”

If the answer is no, perhaps Stamkos feels like a Red Wing instead. The connections to Yzerman, Lalonde and a competitive roster are all perks, and Detroit could use his scoring. He might be an older player, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down. If the cap hit is right, or other manipulations create the necessary salary space, then Stamkos could be a big free agency splash by Yzerman.

Maybe this time, in 2024, Stamkos finally becomes a Red Wing.