Australia's central bank will probably be unable to cut rates in 2024, economist says

Think that inflation is gonna prove to be sticky, it’s gonna fall quite slowly and that’s gonna mean that the RBA is unable to deliver rate cuts in 2024 and today’s numbers sort of sort of support that view. The RBA was on hold, obviously that was the main decision today, but they upgraded as you say their near term inflation forecasts. So they’re they, they’ve they’ve upgraded them by the the magnitude they got in terms of the upside surprise they saw in that first quarter print. And they’re still forecasting though that inflation will get back to the midpoint of their target band by mid 2026. This to me implies that they are thinking that interest rates are going to be higher for longer and that they’re gonna have to leave their cash right where it is for longer. I I think there is some risk still that the RBA may have to lift its cash rate further yet that actually they have to deliver a hike. I don’t think that’s that’s not our central case and we don’t think that’s going to be what ends up happening. But we certainly think that the RBA is unlikely to deliver rate cuts in 2024 and their own set of forecasts today would support that idea as well.