Reform UK warned 'credibility on line' over Brexit vote collapsing in crunch by-election

A former minister has claimed that there is more pressure on Richard Tice’s Reform UK to do well in a crucial by-election this week than on Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party – even though it was a safe Tory seat.

Sir John Hayes, a veteran Tory MP with decades of general election and by-election campaign experience, told Express.co.uk: “Really Reform UK’s credibility is on the line in Wellingborough.”

His comments came as the senior rightwing MP and chairman of the Common Sense Group heads to the Wellingborough by-election campaign today to help Tory candidate Helen Harrison with voters in the seat going to the polls on Thursday.

Sir John said: “This is now a question about how much of a threat Reform UK really is. The polls put them around nine percent but in my long experience when it comes to a general election minor parties like that always get a lower percentage.

“But Wellingborough in theory offers Reform UK the perfect set of circumstances to show whether they are a political force.”

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He went on: “It is a pro-Brexit seat, full of Conservative voters who may stay at home and could be a very low turnout. That means they should expect to get 10 percent at the very least but actually be nearer to 20 percent if their national vote is what the polls claim it to be.

“In many ways, Reform’s credibility is much more on the line than ours. Everyone at the moment appears to have low expectations for the Conservative Party but Reform UK has built up very high expectations in this seat and around the country.

“I think if they fail to get 20 percent or even beat us to second place then that will be a failure for them.”

Tory sources in the seat have suggested that their biggest problem is not voters switching to Reform but Tory voters “going on strike” and staying at home on Thursday allowing Labour’s Gen Kitchen – an anti-Brexit, pro-open borders on immigration candidate – to win.

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Reform UK’s deputy leader Ben Habib is the candidate for Wellingborough and has made the campaign “a referendum on the Sunak government”.

The Tories have bombarded their own voters with adverts warning that if they vote Reform they get Labour, a message reiterated on the GB News People’s Forum by Rishi Sunak last night.

Pollsters have also weighed in with their thoughts on what the by-election result will mean for Reform UK.

Andrew Hawkins told Express.co.uk: “Reform nationally polled at 10 percent across the entire month of January and MRP polls tend to put them in Wellingborough at around 12 to 13 percent. That said, expectations will be for them to put in a bigger performance than their poll rating currently suggests so all eyes will be on whether they can nudge the Tories into third place. If not in Wellingborough, then where?”

Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “If Reform will reach 10 percent or more we have to expect headlines in the newspapers for sure but let’s bear in mind that such a small and particular area cannot be taken as a real picture of the country.”