Arizona Is Booming, but Restless Voters Feel Downbeat About Economy

PHOENIX—By most measures, Arizona has thrived during Joe Biden’s presidency.

Its semiconductor industry is booming, thanks in part to multibillion-dollar investment pledges by his administration. Unemployment is near historic lows, and high inflation is finally cooling. The state has become one of the nation’s top domestic-migration destinations, drawing hundreds of thousands of new inhabitants since 2020.

Yet residents here feel surprisingly bad about the trajectory of their state. In a Wall Street Journal survey of swing state voters in March, 60% of residents said Arizona was headed in the wrong direction, nearly twice the share who viewed it as going in the right direction and the most negative assessment among the seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential race.

Half of Arizona respondents said the state’s economy had gotten worse over the last two years, and nearly three-quarters indicated it’s getting more difficult for the average person to get ahead. The findings help explain why former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leads Biden by 5 percentage points among Arizona voters in the Journal survey.

“I just haven’t seen, since Biden has been in, my life get truly any better,” said Earl Riley, 56 years old, a production manager at a semiconductor plant who lives in a Phoenix suburb. “If anything, since Biden has been in, it appears to me things have gotten a little worse.” Riley, an independent voter who voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016, is open to backing the Republican again.

Biden narrowly won Arizona in 2020 by assembling a coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans who now have rejected Trump and his allies in several elections, handing Democrats in 2022 all major statewide offices for the first time since the 1950s. The victories have come even though Republicans and independents outnumber Democrats, who account for only three in 10 registered voters.

Democrats are hopeful what will keep voters in their column this November is the fight over abortion access. In April, the state Supreme Court revived a 160-year-old ban on nearly all abortions, drawing national attention and throwing state Republicans into turmoil. The state legislature recently repealed the ban, but a legislative quirk means it is still likely to go into effect this summer for several months, before returning to the 15-week ban that existed before the chaos began. Democrats already are campaigning on the issue, hoping that an expected ballot measure that would guarantee access to abortion until fetal viability—about 23 weeks—will turn out voters in November who will also support Biden and other Democrats.

Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes, the tightest vote margin win of any state. This year, though, many voters in his winning coalition are signaling they’re unhappy with life during his presidency. They blame a hot local economy for eroding their quality of life. Housing prices in Phoenix have risen by nearly 50% since before the pandemic, according to Realtor.com, and the state has warned that growth is outpacing the water supply. Voters also are frustrated the federal government hasn’t solved the immigration crisis at the southern U.S. border after illegal crossings set records in recent years.

Inflation has eased recently, but residents say staples are still expensive and luxuries are out of reach. Arizona is one of the most expensive states to buy gasoline, according to AAA.

Arizona has a long history of electing Republicans, and it wasn’t a political battleground until recently. Before 2020, voters here had backed only one Democrat for president since 1948—Bill Clinton, and only once.

Trish McCreary, 62, backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Now, she is undecided about whom to support. The sales consultant from Scottsdale feels there needs to be more border security and a pathway to citizenship for people in the country illegally.

She thinks the former president’s ability to persuade his party to embrace nontraditional GOP policies makes him better suited to get an immigration measure through Congress. But she is angry that Trump told Republicans to block a bipartisan border bill, negotiated by Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent whose seat is open in this year’s election.

Trump’s “stronghold on the Republican Party frightens me,” said McCreary, a longtime Republican who said she plans to change her party affiliation to independent. She has been turned off, she said, by what she views as divisive rhetoric from Trump and the GOP, and worries about the dozens of criminal counts Trump faces. She said she is likely to back the state ballot measure in November that would expand abortion access.

None of that guarantees she’ll vote for Biden this November. “I could be swayed either way,” she said.

It doesn’t appear that the state’s surge of new residents favors Democrats. L2, a nonpartisan vendor of voter data, estimates that of the approximately 225,000 registered voters who have come to Arizona since 2018, Republicans accounted for 35%, independents 33%, and Democrats just under 30%.

Many voters said in interviews that they feel left behind by their state’s explosive growth. Longtime homeowners are happy to see the value of their home equity skyrocket, but lament that high interest rates and a booming market make it difficult for them to trade up. New homes are popping up farther from city centers, some costing well over $1 million, and traffic has worsened.

Riley, the political independent who works at a semiconductor plant, said he reduced his home-buying budget last January because of high interest rates, and ended up with a $380,000 townhouse—and more than $2,800 a month in homeowner expenses. “This is the dilemma, I think that most people are in,” he said. “They’re very frustrated.”

Arizona has become a top tourism and events destination, hosting the 2023 Super Bowl and this year’s NCAA Men’s Final Four basketball tournament. Top restaurants book up weeks or even months in advance, and prices for a trendy meal are on par with Los Angeles and New York.

The semiconductor industry has flourished with funding from the bipartisan Chips Act passed in 2022, intended to bring production of advanced microchips back to the U.S. and diminish reliance on China. Arizona’s semiconductor industry is set to receive tens of billions of dollars in government subsidies and private investments. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is building a factory complex in Phoenix.

Inflation in the Phoenix metro area, after peaking at 13% in August 2022, dropped to 2.2% in February, but many residents are suffering from the 24.2% overall increase in prices over the two years ended in February.

“When you’re poor or working class, it doesn’t matter what the GDP is or what the economists say,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is expected to win the Democratic primary for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. “What matters is: Did your rent go up? Did your rent match wages?” Democrats will win, he said, if they talk about making the economy and immigration better for voters and not telling them things are already fixed. Gallego is also running heavily on the issue of abortion access.

Gallego is expected to face a highly competitive race against Kari Lake, a former TV anchor and Trump ally who narrowly lost her gubernatorial bid in 2022.

Lake said in an interview that independent voters “know for a fact the streets aren’t as safe as they used to be, chronic street homelessness is growing. They see the border that’s wide open. And no matter what the media and Joe Biden’s administration says to try to tell them, ‘Everything’s peachy keen,’ they know that it’s not.”

Michael Rusconi, 60, of Phoenix, doesn’t know whom he will back in this year’s election for president and Senate. As a restaurant owner, he said, he feels the squeeze of inflation and labor costs, and has raised the price of most entrees by about $5 since before the pandemic. He is frustrated there isn’t an easier path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who he believes could help solve hiring issues. He said he wants better vetting of those entering the country, and for them to be allowed to work legally.

“All these immigrants are coming across the border,” he said. “I’m seeing them in the restaurant and I can’t hire them.”

Olivia Lewis, 21, a student in Phoenix, has been unable to move out on her own because of the high cost of rent, which she can’t cover with the $15 an hour she earns working part time at a theater. The Biden administration’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, she said, has been frustrating. While she disagrees with a lot of Trump’s policies and actions, she appreciates his confidence. “I feel like Trump has the balls to be able to do and enforce things,” she said.

Still, the abortion issue is likely to ultimately push her toward supporting Democrats. “It’s really hard to be like, ‘Yes, I like living in Arizona, or I’m going to stay in Arizona’ when there are big huge decisions that have to do with my healthcare constantly changing,” Lewis said.

After the state court reinstated the near-total abortion ban, both Trump and Lake said it went too far, but Lake also said it was unfortunate the state’s Democratic leadership has declined to enforce it. Trump has touted his record opposing abortion, including nominating the Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, turning the issue over to the states.

In the Journal poll, two-thirds of independents in Arizona said they supported access to the procedure, and more voters said they backed Biden’s approach than Trump’s. Still, the issue was less of a priority for independent voters than the economy and immigration, two issues where Trump has the edge over Biden. The poll was taken in March before the court ruling.

Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said Trump was stronger on immigration, the economy and energy. Sean McEnerney, Biden’s Arizona campaign manager, said the president is building off the vision of unity he outlined for the country four years ago, and criticized Trump’s approach to abortion and democracy.

Trump and his allies continue to claim that they won Arizona in 2020, despite no evidence of widespread fraud and a Republican-led audit confirming Biden’s win. Lake and other Republicans who ran statewide in 2022 have continued to falsely claim they won their elections as well.

Daniel Scarpinato, an Arizona-based Republican strategist who was chief of staff to former Gov. Doug Ducey, the last Republican to hold a major statewide office, said Republicans should avoid relitigating the election and figure out a way to clearly state their position on abortion while emphasizing immigration and the economy. “These are going to be driving issues, and to win you just need to be laser focused on them,” he said.

David Tapia, 33, has enthusiastically supported Republicans in the past, including the late Sen. John McCain. He doesn’t want to have to vote for Biden but will because he has strong concerns about Trump. “He’s a sore loser. He can’t accept defeat,” Tapia said.

Tapia said problems with the economy and immigration are being overblown by Republicans. He is doing better financially than ever before as a pest-control adviser in the agriculture industry, even though he pays more at the grocery store. Tapia, who lives in Yuma County on the Mexico border, said the surge of immigrants is “not as bad as the media portrays it.”

The Journal poll found nearly one in five Arizona voters support a third-party candidate, and one in 10 were still undecided. Independent voters here are more likely than Democrats or Republicans to choose a third-party candidate, or to say they are undecided, the poll found.

The poll found that Arizona’s independent voters are equally split between Biden, Trump and Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who isn’t yet on the ballot here, although a super PAC supporting his effort said it had gathered the necessary signatures.

Veronika Grace, 50, a life coach from Sedona, is an independent voter who has consistently voted for Democrats, including Biden in 2020. She said she wasn’t thrilled with her choice then, but worried about Trump’s indications that he wouldn’t accept a loss. This time, she is all in on Kennedy, even if he doesn’t make it on the state’s ballot, “even if it forfeits my whole vote,” because she finally feels inspired by a candidate.

Her husband, Todd Winant, 63, a holistic coach, is also backing Kennedy. “All I see with people like Biden and Trump and Republicans and Democrats is divisiveness,” he said.

Erik Hall, 33, voted for the libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen in 2020, after backing Trump in 2016. Hall, who works in the defense industry, was bothered by Trump’s willingness to add to national debt while in office. This time, the Prescott resident will back Trump—although he said he “doesn’t really like” him—unless Kennedy looks like he could win. He cited Biden’s government spending, including to support Ukraine, and what he sees as an out-of-control border as some of his issues with the Democrat.

“I’d rather vote for someone who has a chance this time,” Hall said. “ I think this is a big one.”

Write to Eliza Collins at [email protected]