18 Cabinet ministers on course to lose seats in Tory election wipeout - full list

Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan face a fight to hand on to their seats

Top Tories Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Gillian Keegan face being ousted in an electoral wipeout, a mega-poll has found.

A whopping 18 Cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats as the Conservatives could go down to as few as 80 MPs. The bombshell survey of 18,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak is on course to lead the party to its worst result in history.

The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus suggests Cabinet casualties would include Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Claire Coutinho, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.

Current ministers who are likely to keep their seats – and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest – are James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, and Michael Gove.

According to the poll, Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997. According to the poll, Labour has 42% support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22%.

Over the past three weeks, the pollsters surveyed 18,151 people – which is nine times as many as a typical poll. The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method – that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections – was then used to project what this would mean in individual constituencies.

The results suggest Labour is set to pick up 452 seats. The Tories would lose 285 of the 265 seats they got in 2019, leaving them with just 80. The Lib Dems are on course for a comeback that would see them go back up to 53 seats. The SNP are forecast to slump slightly to 40 seats, while the Greens would get two.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “The public seem even more disenchanted with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak than they were with John Major in 1997. A Labour landslide looks increasingly likely, and Labour voters want nationalisation, increased public spending and higher taxes. The next election could have a seismic impact on British politics as the recent Conservative era crashes to a close.”

Find Out Now interviewed 18,151 adults in Britain online between January 24 and February 12.