3 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 upset picks in men's March Madness

The first weekend of the 2024 NCAA Tournament is in the books with the men’s March Madness bracket set for the Sweet 16. It’s remained mostly chalk through the first two rounds of action. All No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have advanced and just one double-digit seed – No. 11 NC State in the South region – made it to the Sweet 16.

Second round: Clemson’s Chase Hunter (1) shoots against Baylor.

But this could be the round to see more upsets than the first two rounds. The competition is relatively even with 14 top-25 ranked squads in the 16-team field, meaning the difference between opponents is much smaller.

Here are three potential upset picks for the Sweet 16:

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Sweet 16 upset pick: No. 6 Clemson over No. 2 Arizona

The Tigers have trailed for just 31 seconds in total during the NCAA Tournament in scoring wins over New Mexico and Baylor. Arizona let their opponents hang around in both games; Long Beach State led for part of the first-round game and Dayton kept things close late in the second round.

Clemson’s faced tough challenges on each end of the floor in the first two rounds. The latest KenPom rankings put Baylor sixth in adjusted offense in the country and New Mexico 24th in adjusted defense. By contrast, Dayton’s 23rd-ranked adjusted offense is the only top-25 phase Arizona faced in the first two rounds.

The Tigers have wins over Sweet 16 teams North Carolina and Alabama on their resume, ultimately going 2-3 against those teams in the regular season. Arizona went 2-1 against Sweet 16 teams in the regular season with wins over Alabama and Duke and a loss to Purdue. This will be a close one and the Tigers could make a surprise run to their first Elite Eight since 1980.

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Sweet 16 upset pick: No. 3 Illinois over No. 2 Iowa State

A No. 3 over No. 2 seed isn’t much of an upset but this could still be a surprise. KenPom ranks Illinois No. 1 in adjusted offense and Iowa State No. 1 in adjusted defense. Despite how Iowa State’s looked in the first two rounds with double-digit wins, the Cyclones haven’t seen an offense like the Illini on that end of the court.

Iowa State’s wins came over South Dakota State and Washington State who rank 67th and 128th, respectively, in adjusted offense via KenPom ratings. Illinois faced Morehead State (130th in adjusted defense) and Duquesne (31st) in the first two rounds and won by double figures in each as well.

The Illini score 84.6 points per game, ninth-most in the country, and the Cyclones haven’t played many top offenses this season. They’ve played a top-10 offense by KenPom just twice – two games against Baylor – and went 1-1 in those contests. By contrast, this will be Illinois’ fourth game against a top-10 defense by KenPom. They’re 2-1 in the prior three games.

It took until the final seven minutes against Washington State for the Cyclones to pull away for the win. Illinois won’t go down quite so easy.

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Sweet 16 upset pick: No. 5 Gonzaga over No. 1 Purdue

Zach Edey is one of the most dominant forces in the country in the paint. He’s continued his roll in the tournament, averaging 26.5 points and 17.5 rebounds over two games – better than his regular season averages in both categories.

These two teams met back in November with the Boilermakers winning 73-63. Edey had a standout performance in putting up 25 points, 14 rebounds, 50% shooting from the field. The Bulldogs had one of their worst shooting performances of the season, going 37.7% from the field and 18.8% from three-point range.

But Gonzaga could provide a challenge for the Boilermakers and their star player this time around. They’re shooting much better recently in going at least 50% from the field and 45% from three-point range in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs made it look easy in the second round by pulling away in the second half to beat No. 4 seed Kansas 89-68. They’re now two for two in 20-plus point victories in the NCAA tournament.

They have the size and depth in the frontcourt to likely avoid foul trouble against Edey. They have experience, too, with a run to the championship game, Sweet 16, and Elite Eight in the last three seasons. The Bulldogs make it tough inside the arc and allow opponents to shoot just 44.2% from two-point range, 11th-best in the country. Both teams are rolling but the Bulldogs could be the ones to surprise and earn a spot in the Elite Eight once again.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 3 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 upset picks in men’s March Madness