2024 AdventHealth 400 odds, picks and predictions

Sep 10, 2023; Kansas City, Kansas, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) smiles on the grid before the NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Kansas Speedway Sunday for the 2024 AdventHealth 400. The green flag is scheduled to drop approximately at 3 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 AdventHealth 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2024 AdventHealth 400: What you need to know

• Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott leads all active drivers with a 10.6 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 16 career Cup starts in Kansas. He has a win, 6 top-5 finishes and 10 top-10 runs with 249 laps led
• Legacy Motor Club driver Jimmie Johnson, who is ironically sponsored by AdventHealth for this race, has an 11.8 AFP in 29 career Cup starts at Kansas, with 3 wins, 9 top-5 finishes and 19 top-10 runs
• RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski has managed 2 Cup wins at Kansas, while posting 7 top-5 finishes and 14 top-10 showings in 28 starts at Kansas
• Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin has managed 4 career wins, 13 top-5 finishes and 14 top-10 runs with 446 laps led in 31 Cup starts with a 12.5 AFP
• Penske Racing’s Joey Logano is tied for 2nd with Johnson among active drivers with 3 Cup wins at Kansas, posting a 16.2 AFP with 9 top-5 finishes and 510 laps led. He does have 4 DNFs, however
• Hendrick’s William Byron has never won at Kansas despite a 14.1 AFP in 12 Cup starts, highest among all active drivers without a checkered flag at the track
• JGR’s Ty Gibbs has been erratic in 3 previous Cup starts at Kansas, posting an AFP of 27.3, finishing 14th, 34th and 34th with 2 DNFs
• Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell has a dismal 27.5 AFP in 25 career Cup starts at Kansas, and he leads all active drivers with 7 DNFs at the track

2024 AdventHealth 400 – Expert pick

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:09 a.m. ET.

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+900) is a strong value at Kansas for the chance to multiply your initial wager by 9 times.

MTJ has strong numbers in his career at Kansas Speedway, posting 2 wins, 10 top-5 finishes and 17 top-10 runs in his 31 Cup starts, while leading the pack for 906 laps. The last figure is actually the best among all active drivers, and it isn’t even close. Hendrick’s Kyle Larson is 2nd with 639 laps led, following by Legacy Motor Club’s Johnson (601) and Penske’s Logano (510).

2024 AdventHealth 400 – Contender

ALEX BOWMAN (+2800) comes with some rather long odds, but he has fared well in his Cup career at Kansas Speedway. In 16 career starts, he has never picked up a victory, but he has 3 top-5 finishes, and 8 of his starts, or half, have resulted in a finish of 10th or better with 183 laps led.

Bowman started the season with a runner-up finish in the Daytona 500 before falling on hard times with 3 straight finishes of 18th or lower. However, he has been 8th or better in 3 of his past 4 starts, and 5 of his past 7 races, so he is definitely lurking in the weeds and worth a roll of the dice.

2024 Wurth 400 – Props and matchbets

CHASE ELLIOTT (-115) over Bubba Wallace (-128) in a matchbet is a highly recommended play.

While Wallace has a win at Kansas in 12 career starts, he also has 2 DNFs, just 72 laps led and only 3 top-10 showings, while posting a dismal 21.3 AFP. Elliott also has a win, and he has the best AFP among all active drivers at Kansas (10.6), while recording 249 laps led, 6 top-5 runs and 0 DNFs

If you don’t want to roll the dice on Hendrick’s Bowman to win as a long-shot bet, consider BOWMAN TOP-10 FINISH (-120), which is not priced out of line.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: 2024 AdventHealth 400 odds, picks and predictions