A Trump-Biden Grudge Match Is the Race America Doesn’t Need

A Trump-Biden Grudge Match Is the Race America Doesn’t Need

Published |Updated

Dennis M. Powell

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Clinton, Iowa, on Jan. 06, 2024. Scott Olson/Getty Images

In 1856, newly inaugurated President James Buchanan, entered office believing that the Dred Scott decision, declaring slaves to be property, would resolve the divisive issue of slavery and free our nation to move on from it. Arguably, no president in our history has so greatly misread an issue’s trajectory and public opinion. Four years and one month later, America would be at war with itself following the attack of Fort Sumter by Confederate soldiers in April 1861.

In 2024, it seems increasingly likely that we will have Joe Biden and Donald Trump on the presidential ballot, each of whom believes that his election will help Americans put their deep cultural and political divisions behind us. Biden is shaping his campaign as a crusade to save democracy, and Trump is touting his potential reelection as one to restore America to greatness. Like Buchanan, each man is putting his faith in the outcome he desires, instead of critically assessing the divisive foundations on which his campaign is built.

President Biden is vastly unpopular. In a poll conducted in January 2024 by YouGov, his adjusted disapproval was +19. Biden’s approval at this point in his presidency is 4.4 points lower than Trump’s was; 5.7 points lower than Barack Obama’s; and 18.1 points lower than George W. Bush’s after the same number of days in office. In a Hart Research poll, conducted for NBC News, 70% of respondents said Biden should not run again, and only 21% said they would definitely vote for him. Polling conducted at Quinnipiac in November found 72% of independents and 58% of Democrats say “they would like to see other candidates enter the presidential race.”

Trump fares a little better, with his disapproval rating hovering around +10, but he is much stronger within his base, with approval from 84% of Republicans as of January. This approval rate is up 6 points in the past month, based on YouGov polling sponsored by The Economist.  Trump’s overall approval stands 46%. These are not great numbers, but they’re likely enough to secure the GOP nomination and potentially to position him to win in November. Trump’s stance on key issues is supported by recent Pew Research showing that support among Democrats for Biden on the economy fell to 65% from 88% in 2021, and to 59% from 85% on immigration during the same period.

But issues may not matter this year.

The 2024 campaign is shaping up to be something straight out of Marvel Comics: Biden as the “Defender of Democracy” and Trump as the “Avenging Angel.” It will be a winner-take-all grudge match. Biden has dusted off his 2020 playbook when he ran on a soundbite, lifted from Trump’s remarks following the violent Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va., protesting the removal of a Robert E. Lee statue. Biden used the incident and Trump’s comments to frame his 2020 campaign as “saving the soul” of America.

In 2024, he evidently plans to do the same by focusing on the events of Jan. 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol, to brand Trump and his followers as insurrectionists and urge voters to save democracy. The problem for Biden, according to Pew Research, is that few believe the president can unite the country — 42% of Democrats, 24% of independents and 5% of Republicans — so he will talk about unity while fanning the flames of division.

Trump’s campaign will be forced to fight on three fronts: Biden’s relentless attacks limiting his ability to discuss issues, legacy media branding of him as a racist wannabe authoritarian, and court cases involving 91 charges in four jurisdictions. Trump’s legal troubles have run counter to his opponents’ expectations. Polled in August, Republicans primary voters sent a message to Trump’s challengers: 91% said the challengers needed to make a case for themselves, and 9% agreed they should attack Trump. Yet, the more legal obstacles placed in Trump’s path, the stronger he apparently gets.

Trump’s branding creates a problem that may mitigate his advantages on the issues, as CNN reported in December: His “extreme rhetoric reminiscent of Nazi propaganda and his penchant for siding with America’s adversaries and autocrats pose a unique challenge to his Republican opponents and, ultimately, U.S. voters.”

Key to Biden’s attack strategy is having the news media parse every word Trump utters and frame it as “autocratic” or “racist.” We saw this happen with Trump’s comment comparing his political opponents to “vermin.” Trump has proven that he does not need bait to fall into this trap, so expect Democratic branding efforts to be somewhat successful at diminishing Trump’s support among key voter blocs who are genuinely afraid of him.

Biden’s hopes are pinned on getting voters to see him as a well-intentioned, albeit misunderstood and underappreciated, man who is willing to lead the fight to vanquish a tyrant who would undo our democracy. To accomplish his goal, Biden for the first time in history will focus his attacks not only on his opponent, but also on his opponent’s supporters. The fallout from this strategy could fracture America for generations.

Regardless of who wins, if these two are the nominees, Trump or Biden arguably will have more baggage and less positive support than anyone ever elected president before. This has the potential to trigger events like those President Buchanan faced, when fragile compromises that held the nation together began to unravel, leading to the election of Abraham Lincoln as the first Republican president in 1860.

Biden and Trump both believe that their election will bring the nation together by affirming that one of them is right and the other is wrong, but neither candidate is positioned to heal what truly divides Americans, who long for a leader who can restore the nation. America doesn’t need another James Buchanan, but this election could produce one.

Dennis M. Powell, the founder and president of Massey Powell, is an issues and crisis management consultant and the author of the book, “Leading from the Top: Presidential Lessons in Issues Management.”