Top 5 Forwards the Maple Leafs Should Target in NHL Free Agency

Two weeks away from the opening of free agency on July 1 and the anticipation continues to build for the Toronto Maple Leafs who will be looking to make a splash one way or another. With expectations of serious overhaul up and down the lineup, as defensemen and goaltending remain at the forefront, an intriguing offseason lay ahead for general manager Brad Treliving as the club seeks to address how it attacks upfront.

Of their rostered players, the club is set to have 10 forwards under contract for the 2024-25 season: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Reaves, Bobby McMann, Matthew Knies, and Pontus Holmberg. Forwards Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi are pending unrestricted free agents and expressed their desire to come back to Toronto, though a decision on their return is yet to be determined. Meanwhile, Nick Robertson, Connor Dewar, and Noah Gregor are restricted free agents and it's unclear whether their return is imminent either.

Though it may not be the most substantial list of forwards set to hit the open market on July 1, there are still plenty of suitable options. The Leafs are looking to add to their offensive prowess, especially come April, and more specifically, up the middle. If feasible, here are five considerable options the organization could pursue in the coming weeks.

Elias Lindholm, Vancouver Canucks 

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Elias Lindholm headlines the group of unrestricted free agents as one of, if not the top available options in a class of lacking top-six centers the open market has to offer. At 29 years of age, Lindholm centered the Canucks’ second line when he was acquired from the Calgary Flames back in January.

The former first-round pick scored nine goals paired with 23 assists for 32 points in 49 games with the Flames before adding six goals and six assists with the Canucks in 26 regular season appearances. Though it took longer than expected to find his footing in his new threads, Lindholm was productive in the Canucks’ run to the Western Conference semifinals, scoring five goals and adding five assists – good enough for 10 points in 13 postseason games.

Treliving is familiar with Lindholm, given he was the one who traded for him in the Dougie Hamilton blockbuster trade back in 2018 with the Carolina Hurricanes. In his time with the Flames, Lindholm turned out to be a skilled two-way center that possessed excellent reliability with a perfect blend of offense and defense. His best season came in 2021-22 when he produced at a point-per-game pace while scoring 42 goals and finishing with 82 total points en route to a nine-point postseason in 12 games.

Lindholm was a key member of the Canucks’ first powerplay and penalty-killing units upon arrival, an aspect that would surely help the Leafs who are in search of assistance in that department. Though it’s a small sample size, Lindholm had a 58.7 faceoff percentage with the Canucks following his 55.5 percentage with the Flames in 2023-24. As a right-handed shot, he could slot into the Leafs’ top-six as a second-line center, if they can acquire him for a reasonable deal – a new look for a team heavy on left-handed centermen.

According to AFP Analytics, the site is projecting a five-year $33.94 million contract with a cap hit of $6.78 a season. Considering he’ll likely have no shortage of suitors if he reaches the open market, it could be difficult to bring him to Toronto for a deal in this range. Though if the Leafs can muster it, the Swede would seemingly be a great fit – not to mention he’s cousins with Jarnkrok.

Tyler Toffoli, Winnipeg Jets

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Tyler Toffoli, the goal-scoring machine. Though not a centerman, Toffoli can play on either side of the wing while being both a consistent and reliable producer of offense. Combined between the Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, and Calgary Flames, he has had two 30-plus goal seasons in a row, scoring a total of 67 goals in 161 games. Over the past five seasons, he has scored 139 goals – two more than John Tavares and tied for 31st across the NHL.

What’s one thing the Leafs have been criticized for over the past eight seasons in the ‘Core Four’ era? Aside from scoring in general, the answer is depth scoring. What better guy to bring in than a player with a proven track record of efficient goal-scoring abilities and someone who has not only played in two Stanley Cup Finals but won one with the Los Angeles Kings in 2014.

Treliving is familiar with the Scarborough native, too. If you can recall, Treliving was the one who made the call to bring Toffoli to Calgary in a deal with Montreal when he was with the Canadiens – at that time coming off a 28-goal season. The right-handed winger is coming off a four-year $17 million contract he signed with the Canadiens in 2020, and seems bound for a bump in pay come July 1.

AFP Analytics is estimating another four-year deal, this time in the ballpark of a $24.17 million contract, carrying a cap hit of $6.02 million a season. Although he is not a centerman, he addresses another area of need, consistent goal-scoring with playoff pedigree on his resume. If brought to Toronto at 32 years of age, the former second-round pick would become a great addition anywhere in the Leafs’ top-six – inching him closer to completing the gauntlet of playing for all Canadian teams.

Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks

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Dakota Joshua is a unique story, at least, from the perspective of the Leafs. The club drafted him in the fifth round (128th overall) of the 2014 NHL Entry Draft though he never played a game with the organization. Instead, his rights were shipped to the St. Louis Blues for future considerations in 2019. However, the Leafs were reported last Thursday as one of the many teams to have interest in the forward if he became available.

Joshua is coming off a two-year, $1.65 million contract with the Vancouver Canucks and is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. For the Leafs, they would love to have Joshua’s playoff-like playstyle; gritty, intense, and physical. The 28-year-old is coming off a career year with the Vancouver Canucks, scoring career highs in goals (18), assists (14), and points (32) throughout 63 regular season games. His stellar play carried over to the postseason, scoring four goals paired with four assists and totaling eight points in 13 games.

Aside from leading the team in hits with 245, Joshua spent time playing on both the second powerplay and penalty-killing units while being slotted in as a top-six forward. Now that he holds all the cards regarding his fate, he’ll be in pursuit of maximizing his value if he reaches the open market. According to AFP Analytics, they are predicting a four-year $13.05 million contract with a cap hit of $3.26 million a season for his services. In addition to the deal it would take, it also helps that Joshua stated he would be interested in signing with Toronto.

If the Leafs were to come through on a reunion, he would become a cheaper, but valuable option to add to the Leafs’ bottom six. From the perspective of Toronto, this would be considered a good fit if Joshua is capable of repeating the season that he had in 2023-24 over again.

Matt Duchene, Dallas Stars

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Despite leading Nashville in goals with 22 and being second on the team with 56 points in 2022-23, Matt Duchene was bought out of his seven-year $56 million contract – a buyout that will last for six years with this past season being the first. The club was looking to continue their path to a rebuild which saw a major turnaround this season considering the team’s impressive postseason berth.

However, it’s safe to say that after Duchene was bought out by the Predators in 2023 he was determined to find his old form again. The 33-year-old would go on to sign with the Dallas Stars last summer on a one-year $3 million deal producing 25 goals, 40 assists, and 65 points in 80 regular season games with the Stars before tacking on another six points (2G, 4A) in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Duchene, who can play center and right wing, is only a couple of seasons removed from a career-high 43-goal and 86-point season – setting the Predators' single-season goals record and the second-highest points mark in franchise history. With career earnings of about $75 million and only 51 games of playoff experience (19 of them this year), it’s no secret that the 15-year veteran prioritizes winning from this point onward, with playoff caliber teams at the top of his list.

The former third-overall pick held a 56.5% faceoff percentage with the Stars this season and would be destined to become a great addition to the Leafs’ forward group as a skilled veteran. Being from Haliburton, Ontario, and given the Leafs’ current position that matches Duchene’s “win-now mode”, it poses itself as a possible scenario. He has proven he can be a valued member of the top six, centering the Stars’ second line, widely considered one of the deepest four lines in all of hockey.

The Stars have plenty of talent signed but it can also be said that they may not have the sufficient funds required to retain numerous players needing new deals – and it’s unclear if Duchene will be able to return. AFP Analytics is projecting a three-year $14.77 million contract with a cap hit of $4.82 million a season on his next deal. Upon first glance, Duchene could become a relatively cheaper option in comparison to others on this list, but he has the upside to outplay the number he’s signed to, as he showcased in 2023-24 – and that’s what is promising.

Chandler Stephenson, Vegas Golden Knights

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A worthy candidate the Leafs could explore is Chandler Stephenson of the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite coming off his worst season statistically in the past three, Stephenson still scored the same amount of goals as he did in 2022-23 (16) and added 35 assists for 51 points in 75 games.

At 30 years of age, he has been overly healthy skating in 235 of a possible 246 regular season games over the past three seasons. Perhaps the most impressive item on his resume is his 2023 Stanley Cup Championship, where he was crucial down the stretch – scoring 10 goals paired with 10 assists – totaling 20 points in 22 games.

Stephenson, who can play both center and left wing, had an inspiring 58.1 faceoff percentage in 2022-23 and a 52.6% percentage in 2023-24. The former third-round pick centered Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev on the second line while having a significant role on the team’s first powerplay and second penalty-killing units this season. If anything, he’s a more trustworthy piece to be added to the Leafs’ forward group – one that carries Stanley Cup experience while still being a viable contributor and makes others around him better.

The Saskatchewan native concluded a four-year $11 million contract with the Golden Knights this season, which carried a cap hit of $2.75 million a season. On his next deal, AFP Analytics is estimating a five-year $28.16 million contract that carries a cap hit of $5.63 million a season. From the Leafs’ perspective, Stephenson should be considered an excellent choice when considering everything he does for a team, a jack of all trades, if you will.

Throughout his five seasons in Vegas, he has amassed 269 points (88G, 181A) in 392 regular and postseason games. What some forget is that Stephenson was competing for the top-line center position before the team traded for Jack Eichel in 2021, but regardless has competed deep into the playoffs with star-studded talent and… won.

The Golden Knights have a few big-name free agents this summer that they will attempt to retain, but If the Leafs could find a way to nab two-time Stanley Cup Champion Stephenson off the open market, that would be a significant add.

Honorable Mentions

Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

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After 16 seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning, captain Steven Stamkos is set to become a free agent and is expected to garner league-wide attention if the Bolts do not bring him back. As you may recall, this carousel happened in 2016, the last time Stamkos was a free agent when the Leafs made a push to sign the forward – before he signed an eventual eight-year, $68 million contract to remain in Tampa Bay.

It’s hard to imagine Stamkos ever suiting up in another uniform but his time in Tampa Bay may be coming to an end whether he likes it or not given the financial constraints the club faces this summer. The two-time Stanley Cup Champion and long-serving captain could be open to a homecoming with the Maple Leafs, who would likely welcome Stamkos with open arms given his winning pedigree and lengthy resume scattered with accolades.

At 34 years of age, Stamkos scored an under-the-radar 40 goals paired with 41 assists tallying 81 points in 79 regular season games – this impressively comes two years after he reached the 1,000 point plateau. In the postseason, where he comes to life, Stamkos was one of, if not the most, productive Lightning forward, scoring five goals and adding an assist through five games – showing no signs of slowing down.

As mentioned, the Leafs have struggled to put pucks in the back of the net when the Stanley Cup Playoffs roll around. Stamkos is a known goal-scorer in the postseason, scoring 50 goals in 128 games. Given his age, he may not command a boatload of money with his aspirations likely set on competing with a contender and winning. This cracks the door open slightly for the Leafs to remain a potential suitor for the right price. AFP Analytics is projecting a short three-year deal for $18.47 million with a cap hit of $6.15 million a season.

Toronto does not have the same luxury regarding tax-free earnings but playing alongside longtime friend John Tavares and competing for a Stanley Cup in his hometown is an enticing option to close out his hall-of-fame career. If the Leafs could make the money work, Stamkos would be a superb signing.

Jonathan Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights

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Jonathan Marchessault was one of the members of the inaugural Golden Knights team back in 2017-18, “the misfits” and was a key contributor in the organization’s first Stanley Cup Championship in 2023 – winning the Conn Smythe Trophy. The forward will be in high demand if Vegas opts to allow him to reach the open market as they ride tightly up against the cap yet again.

Over his seven years with the club, Marchessault has scored 228 goals and 264 assists in 609 regular and postseason games for Vegas. More recently, he scored a career-high 42 goals and added 27 assists for 69 points in 82 games in the 2023-24 season. Although his regular season stats are impressive, the postseason is what draws him the most attention. Looking back on the club’s 2017-18 Stanley Cup Final run, which they lost to the Washington Capitals, Marchessault produced at a better-than-point-per-game pace, scoring eight goals along with 13 assists totaling 21 points in 20 games.

On the winning side of things, Marchessault had an incredible postseason run in 2022-23, scoring 13 goals paired with 12 assists tallying 25 points in 22 games en route to winning the organization’s first Stanley Cup. Despite his age, if he becomes available there will be a long lineup of potential suitors, which the Leafs should get in on.

Over the next handful of years, he can be expected to continue his high level of play. Fresh off the completion of a six-year $30 million contract, carrying a cap hit of $5 million a season, AFP Analytics is predicting a three-year $18.92 million contract with a cap hit of $6.3 million. For Treliving and the Maple Leafs, Marchessault is another option that would address the lack of goal-scoring in the playoffs and be an outstanding acquisition to help bolster the top six on either wing.

Though a bidding war would likely arise from the news of Marchessault on the open market, the Leafs should put their hand in the hat and see what they can pull out.

The Leafs currently have 10 forwards under contract for the 2024-25 season with an estimated $19.7 million in cap space according to Puckpedia.com and certainly cannot afford to put all their eggs into one basket. However, they can certainly attempt to make a splash and add upfront while balancing out the remainder of the roster.

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