China expanding nuclear arsenal ‘faster than any other country’

One of China's new type 094 Jin-class nuclear submarines taking part in a naval parade - MARK SCHIEFELBEIN/AFP

China is expanding its nuclear arsenal “faster than any other country” and could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the US or Russia by the end of the decade.

Beijing now has at least 500 nuclear warheads, up from 410 a year ago, according to an annual report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Sweden-based think tank focused on conflict and arms control.

For the first time, China has likely begun deploying a small number of them – estimated to be around 24 – on high operational alert, ready for launch at a moment’s notice, it added.

The report on Monday came after Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato Secretary General, in an exclusive interview with The Telegraph, issued a stark warning about the threat posed by China’s and Russia’s nuclear weapons.

China, he said, was investing heavily in modern weaponry, including its nuclear arsenal, and could have as many as 1,000 warheads by 2030.

By January 2024, the United States and Russia had amassed 3,708 and 4,380 nuclear warheads respectively, accounting for the majority of the global total of just over 12,000 weapons.

Though Beijing’s stockpile is growing, it is expected to remain much smaller than those of the US or Russia, the report said.

However, it could soon be able to call upon as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMS) as the US or Russia.

As well as ramping up production of warheads, around 350 new silos are now under construction in China, the SIPRI report said.

“Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade,” the report said.

“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said Hans M. Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme.

Beijing has never declared the size of its nuclear arsenal, and the report relies on publicly available information and data from the US Department of Defense.

But since first detonating a nuclear bomb in 1964, China has developed a sophisticated arsenal of ICBMs, as well as a submarine-based deterrent. Its warheads can also be carried by nuclear-configured aircraft.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become a world-class military by 2049 and be capable of seizing Taiwan by force, if necessary, by 2027.

The rapid pace of development within the Chinese military, including its nuclear forces, has set alarm bells ringing in the West, leading to numerous warnings from high-profile officials in Washington in recent years.

In response, Lin Jian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said last week that the US had been calling China a “nuclear threat” as a convenient pretext for expanding its own arsenal.

It had long been assumed that China stores nuclear warheads separately from its deployed launchers during peacetime.

The country officially applies a “non-first-use principle of nuclear weapons”, meaning it has pledged not to use them against non-nuclear-armed states or nuclear weapon-free zones. China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain such a policy.

But Western officials believe Beijing has adopted a more aggressive posture.

Since 2022, the Pentagon has assessed that the PLA has shifted to an “early warning counterstrike” strategy, in which it would rapidly launch its nuclear missiles before an adversary had a chance to destroy them.

However, Mr Kristensen added that there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces in nearly all of the world’s nine nuclear-armed states.

Diplomatic efforts to control nuclear weapons also suffered major setbacks amid the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” said Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme.

The research institute noted that, in February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending participation in the 2010 New Start treaty – “the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces”.

China now has at least 500 nuclear warheads - IMAGO/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO

The Kremlin on Monday accused Nato of an “escalation” after Mr Stoltenberg said allies were discussing the deployment of nuclear weapons in response to the dual threat posed by Russia and China.

“This is nothing but another escalation of tension,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

When asked by the Telegraph whether Nato allies should take nuclear warheads out of storage, Mr Stoltenberg said: “I won’t go into operational details about how many nuclear warheads should be operational and which should be stored, but we need to consult on these issues. That’s exactly what we’re doing.”

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