Sanchez: To what degree will the markets start to price in a slowdown in consumer spending

Why don't we start off with Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI raising their price target to 6000 saying that AI is the catalyst. Surprised by that level of bullishness. Do you believe that the S&P can get to 6000 this year? Well, I think it, it is a bit surprising given that so much of what we have seen propping up the great earnings that have been feeding the market generally. Obviously the AI boom in tech is something yet you know that's something totally different. But all of those things, at least the the consumption LED has been really credit card driven. It's been on credit, we've had wage growth, but at some point that's expected to slow by year end. And so I wonder to what degree the markets are going to start pricing in that slowdown sometime in the fall. The way that we're sort of extending what we're experiencing right now, I think it might be hard to get to that final number. You know what I thought was interesting about this call and we got some other calls too from Goldman Sachs as well, David Costin there. But Julian Emanuel, he actually made an economic call as well. Part of his call for 6000 was the Gen. Gen. AIS productivity potential and every job in sector is inflecting the backdrop of slowing inflation of Fed intendal cutting rates and steady growth have supported Goldilocks. That's also an economic call. Aside from the 6000, I understand the 6000 is pretty ambitious. What do you think about the economy overall? Do you think that we're on pace for a Goldilocks situation? I mean, we just heard from Neel Kashkari saying a December cut seems pretty likely. Well, so right now I think that the there is at least one cut price for November. I think the likelihood that we get a December cut will require a lot more weakness in the economy. And that weakness is not really, you know, sort of, you could say that that might be part of the Goldilocks scenario. So if you do get that cut, maybe you sort of continue to keep some wage growth ahead, you know, sort of higher than inflation for some time. I think that's the key to, to a Goldilocks scenario in in 2025, which is that we just sort of mildly slowed down to 1.8%, which is currently what's priced in. And, you know, if in fact the Fed stays higher, you know, continues to remain higher and doesn't even hit that January cut, which is also priced in, I think that could actually threaten real wage growth as well. So, you know, that's, that is the, the, the question. I want to turn back to the general market. We mentioned Mike Santoli's weekend column talking about the quote UN quote unloved market. One of his key data points was the fact that since that April dip, the S&P has been trading well above its fifty day moving average. However, about half of the stocks in the S&P are actually below their fifty day moving average. So I know that's technical analysis. I know that's generally not your wheelhouse, but what do you make of just that that divergent between the broader index, obviously powered by tech and about half of the stocks in it trading below their fifty day moving average? Well, this is classically the markets climbing the wall of worry. So you, you definitely have a, a tale of two stock markets, the Mag 7 and everything else. And I don't even know if Tesla's still in the Mag 7. So it could be like the Mag 6. But you know, regardless, I think that there's a segment of the market that is having a reckoning with, you know, with, with PE forward PES questioning the ability to produce profits. The profitability of companies is being called into question. That's everything below the Mag 7. And that's really a different market dynamic, which is one that is very concerned that we could see a bigger slowdown. I I do have to ask you, Jenny, if we're climbing the wall of worry and you're saying the market's concerned, why is the VIX so low? Another highlight of Mike's column is that the VIX actually dipped below 12 just last week and it's been pretty low all year long. I couldn't agree more. In fact, you know, one of the things that that we do focus on is really protecting downside with options, which are very, very cheap right now. You know, I would say don't look a gift horse in the mouth. And you know, some downside protection right now is actually probably not a bad thing. And we'll keep you in the markets and keep you participating in the upside.