Warning Issued Over North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal
North Korean soldiers attend a mass rally to celebrate the North's declaration on November 29 it had achieved full nuclear statehood, on Kim Il-Sung Square in Pyongyang on December 1, 2017. North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Un declared the country had achieved a "historic cause" of becoming a nuclear state, its state media said on November 29, after the country tested an intercontinental ballistic missile earlier in the day.
North Korea has increased its nuclear arsenal from 30 to 50 nuclear weapons over the past year, a study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated.
"North Korea is increasing both the size and capability of its ballistic missile force, which consists of indigenously produced missile systems with ranges from a few hundred kilometers to more than 12,000 km," SIPRI said in its 2024 Yearbook, an assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security.
Additionally, North Korea possesses "enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads," according to SIPRI.
The institute estimated that North Korea is focusing on developing an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons, which could be used early in a conflict, allowing the aggressor to destroy targets without causing significant radioactive fallout.
SIPRI's numbers are approximate and based on "calculations of the amount of fissile material—plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), its nuclear weapon testing history, its observable missile forces, and assessments by the authors."
North Korea has tested a nuclear device six times since 2006, and its nuclear policy is deeply embedded in the country's politics and culture. Its nuclear policy law states that its nuclear forces should be "regularly ready for action" and that North Korea shall not use nuclear weapons to attack a country without a nuclear arsenal unless threatened.
North Korea suspended operations at the Yongbyon complex for plutonium production in September 2023, and it is unclear whether they have resumed. According to SIPRI, satellite images have not shown significant activity at the plant since the suspension. To compensate for the loss of plutonium, North Korea may be focusing on the production of highly enriched uranium (HEU). However, the researchers said it is impossible to determine how successful they have been or how much HEU they have in stock.
SIPRI reported that the number of nuclear warheads in the world stood at 12,121 as of January, down from 12,512 the previous year. The leading nuclear powers are the United States, Russia, France, India, the United Kingdom, China, Pakistan and Israel, with the U.S. and Russia holding 90 percent of all nuclear weapons.
The institute suggested that North Korea will attempt to grow its nuclear arsenal this year and there are growing concerns about its cooperation with Russia. The U.S., South Korea and other countries have accused Pyongyang of sending weapons and ammunition to Russia for use against Ukraine. Financial compensation from Moscow could enhance North Korea's capability to invest in nuclear weapons.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet Tuesday, marking Putin's first visit to North Korea in 24 years. Tactical nuclear drills were ordered by Putin in May.
Newsweek reached out to SIPRI via email for comment.
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