F1 Spanish Grand Prix: What comes next in the Red Bull-McLaren-Ferrari fight?

17/06/2024

Two weeks ago the Formula 1 grid arrived in Montreal with visions of a true title fight on the minds of fans and drivers alike. “I don’t think either championship is over by any means,” Oscar Piastri declared to me when I sat down with the McLaren driver for an exclusive interview following his second-place finish in the Monaco Grand Prix.

“The Constructors’ [Championship] I would say is still open. We’re still a third of the way through the year. So it’s definitely still all to play for. I would say, of course, we’re at a bit of a disadvantage being as far back as we are, but it’s certainly not impossible,” continued Piastri “And yeah, I think even in the Drivers’ Championship, it’s not done and dusted yet.”

However, Max Verstappen had something to say about that latter point in Montreal.

Verstappen’s win in the Canadian Grand Prix, coupled with a DNF for Charles Leclerc, his closest challenger in the Drivers’ Championship, meant the Red Bull driver pulled 25 points further head of his nearest threat. Even with Lando Norris’ P2 in Montreal, Verstappen’s first-place finish saw him gain a few more points on the McLaren driver.

Now, the Constructors’ Championship was another matter. Sergio Pérez suffered a DNF of his own, so while Verstappen added 25 points to Red Bull’s account with his win, Norris’ P2 and Piastri’s P4 saw McLaren bank 28 points in the Canadian Grand Prix. Those two results, coupled with the Ferrari double DNF, meant the field on the Constructors’ side of things tightened up even more in Montreal.

As Piastri said, neither championship is “done and dusted” just yet. And things have only tightened more in the Constructors’ Championship these past few weeks.

Will things tighten even more in Barcelona? That is surely the biggest storyline to watch this week as the F1 grid heads to the Spanish Grand Prix.

But it is not the only one.

What awaits on the driver market front?

Will the fluid driver transfer market deliver more news this week?

With the F1 world descending upon Barcelona, the focus likely shifts to Carlos Sainz, Jr. The Spanish driver has yet to confirm his plans for the 2025 season, when Lewis Hamilton slides into the seat Sainz currently occupies at Ferrari.

Rumors have surrounded Sainz ever since that announcement, with teams such as Mercedes, Sauber — soon to become the Audi works team — and most recently Williams linked with the accomplished driver.

Late last week reports surfaced that despite expectations that Sainz would move to Sauber, ahead of the transition to Audi, that Williams was in the driver’s seat to land the driver. According to these reports, Williams has offered Sainz a four-year deal, giving the driver a potential out after two seasons if he believes the team has not made sufficient progress in his mind.

Of course, nothing is official until ink is put to paper, and Sainz himself has brushed aside various reporting already this season.

“The only thing I can tell you is there is nothing locked in. I’ve seen reports, I don’t know if it’s in Spain, people saying I’ve signed. I look at those things and it makes me laugh because I remember seeing reports three months ago that I had signed for Mercedes, reports that I had signed for Red Bull. Now obviously those places are not going to happen,” said Sainz earlier this month.

“So it’s funny now seeing people say I’ve signed for Williams. It makes me laugh that this goes a bit unpunished for some media person. It concerns me that people can get away with that kind of stuff,” added Sainz. “When I have something to announce, you guys will be the first to know and I will be here openly talking about my future.”

Now Sainz is just one of the drivers yet to announce his future plans. Other drivers we are waiting to hear from include Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Esteban Ocon, and more. But with the grid in Sainz’s home country, it is fair to turn our thoughts to an announcement from him first.

The future of F1 in Barcelona

As the grid arrives in Barcelona for this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix, the future of Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya on the F1 grid is in severe doubt. At the start of this calendar year it was announced that the Spanish Grand Prix will move to a new street circuit in Madrid beginning in 2026, on a track that will city’s exhibition center.

The new location will extremely accessible for fans, as the new circuit will be just five minutes away from Madrid-Barajas Adolfo Suarez airport, and near local Metro and train stations. According to the announcement, “ ... it is estimated that 90% of fans will be able to travel to the paddock via public transport, while those staying in local accommodation will be a short walk away from the venue.”

While that might be great news for fans, it calls into question the future of an event in Barcelona.

Will Spain soon host two races, or will the new circuit in Madrid remain the sole race on Spanish soil going forward? Or perhaps Barcelona will again host F1 pre-season testing, as it did until 2023, when the site of pre-season testing was moved to Bahrain.

The next step in the never-ending development wars

We are truly in the thick of the 2024 F1 season, and when you add in the layer of a true title fight shaping up — at least when it comes to the Constructors’ Championship — every upgrade matters.

And as you might expect, teams are bringing a host of upgrades to Barcelona ahead of the upcoming tripleheader (more on that in a second).

Andrea Stella, the McLaren Team Principal, teased some upcoming upgrades for the Woking-based outfit recently. “For the coming races, we will have some upgrades, but they won’t be a single kind of big upgrade like we have seen over the last 12 months,” said Stella. “This is more some individual components where we found a little bit of performance and rather than waiting to deploy everything together once ready we take it track side.

“So I won’t say what but we will see some new stuff coming over the few coming races.”

McLaren, thanks to a P2 from Lando Norris and a P4 from Oscar Piastri last time out, actually gained three points in their chase of Red Bull at the top of the Constructors’ standings. And with Ferrari dealt a double DNF in Canada, McLaren pulled 28 points closer to the Scuderia, and they now trail Ferrari by just 40 points.

While Mercedes is a bit farther back in that fight, the Silver Arrows are coming off their best weekend of the year, with George Russell notching a podium finish in Montreal. That result comes as the team has been rolling out a series of upgrades, starting with the Miami Grand Prix. That package has included a new front wing, with Russell utilized in the Monaco Grand Prix and then Lewis Hamilton utilized in Montreal.

But the Silver Arrows are not done, as a new floor is coming for the W15.

“I think definitely, since Imola, we’ve taken the right steps and put parts on the car that are working, something that we were struggling in the past couple of years,” said Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff recently. “Now directionally we seem to be adding performance every weekend and we have new stuff coming also, new parts coming in Barcelona that should help us. So I would very much hope that we can continue this positive trajectory.”

While the new floor is a big component, and a new front wing is something certainly visible to the naked eye, Wolff outlined that Mercedes has been bringing many new components these past few weeks, some of which might not be visible to the untrained eye.

“Sometimes when you bring a highly-visible part like a bodywork or front wing, this is pretty much the talk of what has changed the performance,” added the Mercedes boss.

“But the truth is we have, over the last three races, brought so many new parts, visible and invisible for the eye, that have contributed milliseconds to more performance. I think this is where those marginal gains then have that positive effect. That was just a huge effort of the factory, so I think the wheel has started to get some real motion on it.”

As for Ferrari, the Scuderia planned on bringing their latest set of upgrades later this season, but reports out of Maranello indicate that they may push those new components out for the Spanish Grand Prix, given the disaster that was the Canadian Grand Prix for the team. According to Formu1a.uno, Ferrari was targeting Silverstone for another aggressive package, but the team may be “ ... accelerating production times to introduce the most important innovations already in Barcelona.”

Will that truly be the case? We’ll know more in a few days.

Finally there is Red Bull. Will they have some upgrades of their own in Barcelona?

Team Principal Christian Horner hinted recently that they indeed might have some new components ready for Barcelona. “It’s a possible yes,” said Horner when asked if Red Bull would roll out some upgrades in Barcelona. “We’re closer to the top of the curve, so you get into a law of diminishing returns. But there will be subtle upgrades over the summer months.”

As the F1 schedule hits the summer the action on the track — and in the factories — heats up.

Round 1 of a tripleheader

When the 2024 F1 schedule was announced, many noticed that the calendar called for three different triple headers.

The first is upon us.

This weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix kicks off three straight weeks of racing. Following the Spanish Grand Prix, the grid will head to Red Bull Ring, for the Austrian Grand Prix. That weekend adds even one more layer, as the Austrian Grand Prix is one of six F1 Sprint race weekends.

Following Austria, the grid then heads to historic Silverstone, the site of the British Grand Prix.

Beyond the usual challenges an F1 week presents for teams and drivers, having three straight weeks of racing adds even more hurdles — and potential problems — for the ten teams to endure.

So buckle up friends, as a lot of F1 action is heading your way these next three weeks.

33 soon ... ?

When the grid arrived in Barcelona a year ago, Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso were in many ways the talk of the F1 world. Aston Martin was still second in the Constructors’ Championship standings, one point ahead of third-place Mercedes. As for Alonso himself, he was in third place, 12 points behind Sergio Pérez. As you might expect from that place in the standings, the veteran driver was in fine form, having five podiums in six starts.

That beginning of the 2023 season led to talk of “33 soon?”, the rallying cry that followed Alonso’s quest for his elusive 33rd grand prix victory. With the grid arriving in Barcelona, there was hope that perhaps Alonso would earn that elusive victory in front of a home crowd.

However, if anything the results in the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix told the story of what was to come for Aston Martin down the stretch a year ago. Alonso finished down in seventh — behind teammate Lance Stroll — and he would see the podium just three more times over the rest of the year.

“I think sixth and seventh positions were the maximum for us. I thought our performance seemed better in qualifying, so I think we need to look at why and aim to bounce back for Canada,” said Alonso after the race. “We still scored some solid points and we had no risk at the end of the race. I want to thank the fans for their passion, energy and support this weekend. It was very emotional and special for me.”

Canada was one of those final three podiums for Alonso in 2023, as he finished P2 behind Max Verstappen. But that elusive 33rd victory has yet to materialize for the veteran driver.

Can he make some magic happen at home this weekend?