U.S. Fed seems to be winning the inflation war, asset management firm says
First of all, walk me through the factors influencing the curve right now and overall market sentiment and direction as we countdown to the PCE number. What's happening? Yeah, so I, I think we've had, you know, some encouraging data over the last few weeks. We've had, you know, decent inflation, inflation data. We've had some of the forward-looking labour indicators look decent. And you've seen rates come off rates were as high as 4.64 point 7 at in the early part of May and you've seen them come down all the way. They even broke the 4.25 barrier on the 10 year for a while and so. You know, I think what the market is pricing in here now is that the probability of a rate hike, which was somewhat seen, it was a low probability event, but it was seen as a possibility maybe even, you know, four or four or five weeks ago. That has clearly been priced out of the market right now. And, and you're, you're seeing sort of the, the fact that the Fed seems to be, you know, winning this war, albeit a bit slower than than people were hoping on inflation. I think the PCE number will you know is obviously going to be important. The recent PMI data that came out was a little bit strong and sort of pushed the push rates up again, pushed the 10 year up again over the 425 level. So you know, I think we're still a little bit in that uncertain range of data, but clearly, you know, I think the direction is becoming clearer and the direction is in our view that rates have peaked for the year and that they will probably be. Lower the question is what is the quantum? And I think that's, you know, obviously the the thing that the market's going to try to figure out over the over the back half of this year.