California's Exodus Could Get Even Worse
An ongoing population transfer from California to other American states looks set to continue according to data shared with Newsweek by relocation tech company moveBuddha.
Of the ten most popular relocation routes searched by the firm's customers in 2024 five involved moving from a California metro area to a different state, while involved a move in the opposite direction.
In March the U.S. Census Bureau reported the population of California was 38,965,000 as of July 2023, a fall of 573,000 from 39,500,000 three years earlier. This decline occurred despite the U.S. population growing as a whole, with Florida, Texas and South Carolina recording increases of 1.9 percent, 1.6 percent and 1.7 percent respectively in the year to July 2022.
U.S. Census Bureau figures showed 74,000 people moved from California to Arizona alone in 2022, following 69,000 the previous year.
General views of the Hollywood Sign on November 10, 2023 in Hollywood, California. Five of the top ten American relocation routes searches recorded by relocation tech company moveBuddha for 2024 involved people leaving California. AaronP/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images/GETTY
Los Angeles to New York was the most searched for moveBuddha relocation route in 2024 according to the company, while San Francisco to New York came in at fourth place.
Los Angeles occupied three more spots on the top ten with relocation to Dallas, Las Vegas and Seattle being the 5th, 6th and 8th most searched for moves, respectively. Of the ten most searched routes only one involved a move to California. This was the third most popular route from New York to Los Angeles.
Adjusted on a per capita basis three of the top ten most searched moveBuddha routes involved people leaving California. These were people looking to move from San Jose to Seattle in third, San Francisco to New York in fifth and San Jose to Austin in sixth. Using this metric only one of the top ten involved searches for moving to California, which was Seattle to San Francisco in ninth place.
Along with the data, moveBuddha noted that: "5 of the top 10 exit metros are in California. Los Angeles has the highest interest in outbound moves, with 42% more outbound inquiries than runner up San Francisco. Per capita, the prize goes to San Francisco.
"Since California is a top move-out state and Los Angeles is its biggest city, moving costs can soar, especially in the summer when moving trucks all head in the same direction. With a professional moving truck, the trek east will cost movers between $2,056 and $10,356, depending on the size of their move and its timing."
Speaking to Newsweek Tom Vogl, an associate professor in economics who teaches at the University of California San Diego, argued housing is the biggest single factor behind people leaving California.
He said: "All the data I've seen suggest that housing is the driving issue. A typical house in California costs twice as much as a typical house in Texas, the most common destination for California out-migrants. And when asked why they left, out-migrants are now much more likely to cite housing than other reasons like jobs and family, which wasn't true in past decades.
"The high cost of housing makes it hard to make ends meet in California. California is also the epicenter of homelessness in the US. The homelessness crisis is another byproduct of unaffordable housing as well as another push factor that may drive residents to leave."
Professor Dowell Myers, a demography expert at the University of Southern California's Price School of Public Policy, agreed housing is key and played down the suggestion crime has also been a key factor.
In an interview with Newsweek he said: "The one unusual factor about California is the high housing prices, but those also have increased nationwide. California is still the highest (along with Hawaii) and it is pushing out young adults who really want to buy a house. The housing market might be back in balance again after a few more years of these losses, especially given that the state government is really pushing policies to build more housing.
"Crime is not a factor in most people's lives in California...Always in the news, but actually they occur at a very low rate relative to population size."
Newsweek contacted Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom for comment by email.
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