US security pact sets Ukraine on path to become a major military power

A new 10-year security agreement between the US and Ukraine could help the war-torn nation become a major military power and exporter, analysts believe.

The deal signed by Presidents Biden and Zelensky at the G7 summit in Italy on Thursday is intended to provide Ukraine with assurance over US commitment as well as to “strengthen Ukraine’s credible defence and deterrence capabilities for the long term.”

The document does not promise Ukraine a path to Nato membership, as Kyiv had hoped.

But it does commit the US to a “transformation of Ukraine’s military capabilities across the full spectrum of combat functions,” including air defence, long range strike capabilities, fighter aircraft, and cyber security, as well as a long term, large scale training programme for Ukrainian soldiers.

Ukraine has already built the largest army in Europe to resist the Russian invasion, which reached about 880,000 active soldiers earlier this year, according to President Zelensky. That force has been supplemented with tens of billions of pounds worth of Nato hardware, including tanks, artillery pieces, long range missiles, and – imminently – F-16 fighter jets.

Kyiv has also developed a formidable drone industry that has produced dozens of new designs for land, air, and sea, contributing to heavy losses of Russian equipment and the decimation of the Black Sea Fleet.

The next step is to build greater self-reliance, suggests Dr Kristian Gustafson, head of Intelligence and Security Studies at Brunel University.

“Ukraine has built one hell of an army,” he said. “The trick is that they are still dependent on outside powers for their ammunition requirements. War is incredibly hungry, and Ukraine cannot yet produce all the munitions it requires.”

A model of V5 marine drone used by Ukraine to attack Russian ships on display at the DSEI arms fair in London in September 2023 (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)

Ukraine’s military industrial base has been heavily targeted by Russia through long range strikes at key production facilities. Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries, said last month that he intends to use foreign aid to rebuild the domestic defence industry, and to encourage allies to procure hardware for Ukraine from Ukrainian companies.

The new security agreement with the US also commits to building up Ukraine’s domestic production, including through “private industry partnerships in key priority areas of defence production, including the manufacturing of air defence systems and supporting munitions, artillery ammunition…and unmanned aerial vehicles.”

This will require a stealthy and sophisticated operation, says Dr Gustafson.

“You can’t build big conventional factories when you are under constant threat of attack but you can disperse, bury, and conceal factories,” he said. “The kind of high tech machinery you need to produce artillery shell casings you can put in smaller buildings.”

Knowledge and technology sharing under the new security agreement will be a two way street, the analyst adds, noting that in areas such as drone production, the US and West “ought to be learning as much from Ukrainians as they are learning from us.”

Ukraine’s military innovations could become economic assets at a time of financial crisis. Products that have been proven on the battlefield, such as the Magura V5 marine drone, are increasingly in demand around the world and make regular appearances at military trade shows.

“Ukraine would be wise to capitalise on their innovations,” said Dr Gustafson, “They have shown a tremendous capacity to innovate and solve problems under extreme resource constraints.”

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“If you can be a producer of efficient, inexpensive, effective high tech kit then you are beating the boutique high cost weapons systems sold by the West.”

In the short term, Ukraine remains reliant on emergency support, notes Keir Giles, a Russia and Eurasia specialist at Chatham House.

“Ukraine has made very innovative use of its own native capabilities and weapons systems from abroad,” he said. “But in any given phase in the conflicts, there has been a specific capability that Ukraine has highlighted as being essential to its success.”

“At the moment, Ukraine’s greatest state in need is for air and missile defence to try to protect cities and critical national infrastructure, especially energy infrastructure,” he added, referring to Russia’s campaign of long range strikes against Ukraine’s power plants.

Ukraine’s allies are laying the building blocks for development and modernisation of the military, such as through the “tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers cycling through UK training programmes,” Mr Giles added.

Mykola Bielieskov, an adviser to Ukraine leadership at the National Institute for Strategic Studies think tank in Kyiv, said US commitments over air defences, fighter jets, and long range firepower would elevate Ukraine’s military power.

“These are the capabilities that determine the contours of the modern battlefield,” he said.

But Mr Bielieskov noted that not all past commitments from western partners have been honoured.

“Now it’s about giving substance to these pledges,” he said.