The Islanders, The Hurricanes & The Mysterious Case Of Martin Necas
There's no question that the Carolina Hurricanes' pending restricted free agent forward Martin Necas would be a strong fit for the New York Islanders.
At 25 years old, the former 12th overall pick in 2017 had a solid season, with 24 goals and 29 assists for 53 points in 77 games after scoring 28 goals in 2022-23.
He's strong on the forecheck — as are many Hurricanes -- with an excellent set of wheels on him. He's more of a playmaker than a scorer, but he certainly knows how to find the back of the net.
However, given the depth of the Hurricanes, Necas found himself in a bottom-six role, which is not where he wants to be.
Because of international duties, Necas did not speak to the media during locker room cleanout day, as he went and joined Czechia.
But his father had some words:
Parent talks mean nothing, as, of course, they are going to do what they can to help their children, but Mr. Necas isn't likely wrong.
Necas has shown to have the talent to be a top-six winger, maybe even a centerman, if he can dramatically improve his face-off numbers.
Hurricanes general manager Don Wadell and head coach Rod Brind'Amour said during their end-of-the-year presser on Monday morning that Necas isn't a player they are just going to give up on. (H/t Ryan Henkel)
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But, with Waddell moving on to become the general manager of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who knows how interim general manager Eric Tulsky feels about Necas.
Does Necas, who is arbitration-eligible, want to be back at a reasonable cap hit ($3 million annually for the last two seasons)?
If he doesn't or the organization decides it's best to move him, what are they looking for in return?
"We'd love to get a right-handed shot center to balance out our left shots," Waddell said. "Marty is an exceptionally skilled guy that you're not just going to give up on, that's for sure. We'll deal with it as the summer progresses." (H/t Walt Ruff)
Just because Waddell is out doesn't mean the team needs have changed.
Looking at the Hurricanes' books, they can try to bring as many players back as possible and go for it all or retool a bit while staying competitive.
But it seems they have no interest in taking any steps back.
It seems every season, Jean-Gabriel Pageau is rumored to be on the move, a right-handed center who can play on both special teams, dominate the face-off dot, and shut down the league's best at 5-on-5.
With the emergence of Kyle MacLean, a pending restricted free agent who burst onto the scene in 2023-24, the Islanders could move on from Pageau and his $5 million cap hit.
But, at 31, with two years left at $5 million annually for a player who doesn't really produce offensively -- maybe would produce more a deeper team with consistent linemates -- it would be a tough sell.
The key to the Islanders having success in 2024-25 lies in their defensive play, and if they believe Pageau can bounce back, he will have to play a vital role in that defensive turnaround
Pageau has a 16-team no-trade list.
Looking at the Hurricane's center depth, Staal would likely remain the second-line center if Pageau was acquired, moving Jack Drury to the fourth-line center spot.
Evgeny Kuznetsov is more likely to end up somewhere else this summer.
Realistically speaking, although he is not a right-shot center, the better fit for the Hurricanes would be to trade for Brock Nelson, the Islanders' leading goal-scorer who potted 35 goals this past season, a third straight season scoring 30-plus.
Nelson's deal, at $6 million annually, has one year remaining, and he is eligible to sign an extension on July 1.
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But having a one-two punch of Sebastian Aho (36 goals in 2023-24) and Nelson (34 goals in 2023-24) could be lethal, especially for a team that believes they are "knocking on the door" and "not a few houses down," the words of Hurricanes had coach Rod Brind'Amour.
Nelson can also play on both special teams.
The question for New York is, do they think Nelson can continue to play to the level we've seen despite his age, and is that worth it for a few more strong seasons when he has strong trade value that can help the team's long-term future?
Nelson has a modified no-trade clause of 16 teams.
The Hurricanes may not want to part ways with Necas, but if they ultimately decide that's what's best, could we see a Nelson-Necas swap?
It would be a shocker if Nelson were on the move, but anything is possible.
And, according to The Athletic's Arthur Staple, Lamoriello had offers for Pageau at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline but said that the centerman was unavailable.
However, a Nelson-Necas swap or a Pageau, plus pick (s) -- the Islanders have an extra second-round pick after trading with the Chicago Blackhawks—would fill a need.
With the Islanders having five more centers on the roster, they wouldn't be crushed there if Nelson or Pageau were on the move (Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal, Casey Cizikas & MacLean).
Also, Necas was drafted as a centerman, and Pierre Engvall, who has six years remaining at $3 million annually, has played center as well.
How good would a top line of Necas-Horvat-Barzal be?
If Nelson stays, what about a line of Necas-Nelson-Palmieri?
If the Islanders were to trade Nelson, the biggest concern would be who would make up for his production. Would a one-for-one trade be a losing move for the Islanders?
Suppose Necas could score 25 goals, factoring in what MacLean could do in a full season after four goals in 32 games, plus other potential additions and professional prospects.
In that case, the Islanders should be covered offensively.
Regarding MacLean, who showed an incredible level of fight and compete in the first-round series between these two teams, could he be someone the Hurricanes think could replace someone like a Jordan Martinook or a Stefan Noesen if one or both of those two walk in free agency?
Pick(s) would have to be attached to MacLean for the Hurricanes to even think about that, and isn't the kind of player a Necas move should be bringing back.
Nelson going to the Hurricanes would make them tremendously deeper, pushing Staal to the third-line center.
However, moving Nelson is such a gamble, and moving anyone else in a package would make more sense for New York.
If you asked what the likelihood of a deal between the two teams is, it would be slim -- but it's not zero.
With both teams dealing with cap issues and tough decisions, "hockey trades" seem to be part of their futures.
Also, inter-division trades aren't too common.
Then again, the Penguins traded Jake Guentzel in the division to the Hurricanes, so you never know.