NOAA predicting ‘above-normal' 2024 hurricane season with highest ever May forecast

June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season, which runs through November 30

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an "above-normal" 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, releasing its highest ever pre-season annual forecast on Thursday.

While some years may produce storm totals that raise an eyebrow, this season’s forecast should probably raise a (red) flag.

In their release, NOAA is forecasting 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes. This is the highest named storm forecast NOAA has ever issued in May.

June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season, which runs through November 30.

Considering an average season consists of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, this is a statement forecast.

In the release, NOAA asserted the 2024 season as "extraordinary" per Rick Spinrad, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere.

It is with high likelihood that ocean-atmosphere patterns will swiftly flip from El Niño to La Niña in the coming months, fostering an environment that is more conducive for storm development.

The release of this year’s seasonal outlook likely holds a little more appeal and is met with more curiosity in the wake of Colorado State’s aggressive forecast issued in early April.

At that time, CSU framed the season as “extremely active" with a call for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

Viewed as the two pillars of tropical seasonal outlooks, NOAA and Colorado State have captured the pre-season limelight this year. But they’re not the only forecasts pointing at an above-average season.

A suite of 22 forecasts from private sector and academic institutions are calling for an active season as well, averaging 11 hurricanes for 2024.

noaa predicting ‘above-normal' 2024 hurricane season with highest ever may forecast

The season officially begins June 1st and, at this time, there are no signs of life in the tropics. This is a good thing considering 12 storms have formed in the pre-season since 2012.

Again, one of the pillars for this season’s above-average number of storms will come from the transition away from El Niño, which is already occurring, to La Niña. This ocean-atmosphere phenomenon is tucked away in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean and serves as a driving force for Atlantic basin activity.

noaa predicting ‘above-normal' 2024 hurricane season with highest ever may forecast

El Niño tends to produce more upper-level wind shear, a deterrent to Atlantic storm formation. These seasons tend to average fewer storms.

However, 2023, an El Niño season, failed to show much restraint to storm development as 20 systems formed. This included Idalia, which made landfall in September as a category 3 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend.

This year, La Niña is forecast (77% likelihood) to settle in and coincide with the peak of hurricane season. This is the alignment we don’t want, but it looks inevitable. La Niña, which features cooler water and the lack of rising air in the Pacific, lends itself to lighter winds in the Atlantic basin. These seasons feature less wind shear are likely to produce more storms in a less-hostile wind environment.

While the state of the atmosphere in the Atlantic Basin isn’t quite primed for activity, water temperatures prove ready as they failed to adequately cool in the off-season. At this time, sea-surface temperatures in mid-May are running closer to August levels and demonstrate an essential ingredient for storm formation in the coming months.

Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science has been keeping tabs on water temperatures across the Atlantic Basin.

noaa predicting ‘above-normal' 2024 hurricane season with highest ever may forecast

Dr. Kim Wood

His frequent posts to X continually advise that, both, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) have run far above average in the off season.

He was asked to frame up his view of the season ahead, and his response was not unexpected.

"We’ve never had water temperature anomalies like this. And when you combine that with what’s certain to be a La Niña, no one has seen this before," McNoldy said.

As a reminder, these forecasts attempt to capture the total number of storms in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the season. A reflection on how active, above or below, a season may be. However, there is no skill in predicting where systems develop or where they track.

Allow the seasonal forecasts to serve as a catalyst for your preparation plan this season and the necessity to monitor the tropics, especially mid-August to mid-October.

OTHER NEWS

23 minutes ago

Woman who spent 43 years in prison has conviction overturned as case takes shocking twist

23 minutes ago

Serbia vs England - Euro 2024: Live score, team news and updates as the Three Lions quest to 'Bring Football Home' gets underway against a Serbian team led by Mitrovic and Dusan Tadic

28 minutes ago

Data analyst reveals the state where gas prices are expected to increase to $10 per gallon

28 minutes ago

Video: Three Lions fans' booze-up kicks off ahead of England's Euros clash with Serbia TODAY - with new video showing supporters singing chorus of '10 German Bombers' in defiance of FA and police

28 minutes ago

Bec Judd reveals what REALLY happened to the red dress that launched her career at the 2004 Brownlow: 'It was definitely a moment'

28 minutes ago

Luis Diaz is caught by HORROR two-footed tackle in Colombia's friendly win against Bolivia as Liverpool fans fume over 'disgrace' as opposing defender isn't sent off

28 minutes ago

Levi Colwill 'is open to joining Bayern Munich' with new boss Vincent Kompany a keen admirer of the Chelsea defender

28 minutes ago

FBI agent and Twin Towers first responder reveal how likely another 9/11 attack is on U.S. soil...and why it will be even more deadly

29 minutes ago

Buck, Bajraktarevic spark Revolution to victory over Whitecaps

29 minutes ago

80 countries at Swiss conference agree territorial integrity of Ukraine must be basis of any peace

30 minutes ago

Haj 2024: 14 Jordanians dead, 17 missing in Saudi as authorities warn of high temperatures

30 minutes ago

BBC pundit convinced Levy will spend 60 million on Tottenham signing

30 minutes ago

Why bashing billionaires won’t solve the inequality crisis

30 minutes ago

Israel pauses military activity along southern Gaza road to facilitate aid

30 minutes ago

How England’s top private schools came to own 38,000 acres of land

30 minutes ago

Peter Dutton discusses the Coalition's nuclear policy

30 minutes ago

I audited my Amazon Prime membership to see if the $139 annual fee is still worth it

30 minutes ago

Fight for control of Yemen's banks between rebels, government threatens to further wreck economy

30 minutes ago

'This Week' Transcript 6-16-24: Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Sen. Tim Scott and Bob Woodward & Carl Bernstein

30 minutes ago

Sen. Tim Scott says he stands by vote to certify 2020 election

30 minutes ago

Euro 2024: Man shot by Hamburg police after axe threat

30 minutes ago

Brandon McMullen says Scotland will be ‘back stronger’ after T20 World Cup exit

32 minutes ago

Who is Matthieu Pavon's wife Melissa? What we know

32 minutes ago

Germany's Pavlovic gets new Bayern contract after missing Euro 2024 with illness

38 minutes ago

‘I was in the depths of alcoholism. Then my son said two sentences that changed my life’

39 minutes ago

SP demands future elections through ballot papers

39 minutes ago

MPs & MLAs should constantly monitor development and public welfare works: CM Yogi

39 minutes ago

Labor disregards renewable costings and slams Opposition’s nuclear ‘cost of transition’

39 minutes ago

Stocks are sexy, but these market gurus see a generational opportunity in bonds

44 minutes ago

Kaunda’s posting to NCOP came as a shock

44 minutes ago

Brittney Griner Sends Serious Team USA Message Despite Backlash

44 minutes ago

UN welcomes Israel announcement of Gaza ‘pauses’ for aid deliveries

44 minutes ago

France coach Deschamps on brink of ton of triumphs

44 minutes ago

A Father's Day ode to Papi, and what I never asked

48 minutes ago

Video: Kate Middleton embraced late Queen's 'stoicism and calm' as she showed 'confident determination, reassurance and support' during Trooping the Colour, body language expert claims

49 minutes ago

Behind the scenes at Hajj: The lifecycle of Jamarat pebbles

49 minutes ago

Scotland vs Switzerland: Euro 2024 prediction, kick-off time, TV, live stream, team news, h2h results, odds

49 minutes ago

De Minaur wins Dutch grasscourt title to hit a new high ahead of Wimbledon

49 minutes ago

How much does it cost to build a golf course?

49 minutes ago

Nearby Iranian ship ignores distress call of ship attacked by Houthis