Ted Cruz's Chances of Losing Election, According to Polls
Senator Ted Cruz speaks at a news conference on July 19, 2023 in Washington, D.C. Polls show Cruz, a Texas Republican, with a lead over Democratic challenger Representative Collin Allred in the Texas Senate race.
Senator Ted Cruz is set to face off against Representative Colin Allred in November in the Texas Senate election, viewed by some Democrats as the only opportunity to flip a Senate seat this year.
For decades, Texas has been seen as among the most conservative states in the country, last voting for a Democrat on the presidential level in 1976. But growth in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their Democratic-trending suburbs, caused the state to become more competitive in recent election cycles.
While Republicans are still viewed as having an advantage in the Lone Star State, Democrats are hoping Allred, a former NFL star who flipped a suburban seat outside of Dallas in 2018, can put the seat in play in November. But recent polls show that Cruz holds an early lead over Allred in the Lone Star State.
The most recent poll, conducted by YouGov and the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, found Cruz with a double-digit lead over Allred. In that poll, 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Cruz in November, while 33 percent said they will vote for Allred.
That poll was conducted from April 12 to 22 among 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Other polls have found Cruz with a smaller lead. A Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll, conducted among 1,600 likely voters from April 5 to 10, found Cruz with a five-point advantage, leading Allred 46-41. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.45 percentage points.
A Cygnal poll conducted from April 4 to 6 among 1,000 likely voters found Cruz leading 45-36, a nine-point lead. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.94 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican, meaning it is not considered competitive at this point, but has "the potential to become engaged."
Newsweek reached out to the Allred and Cruz campaigns for comment via email.
Cruz described himself as Democrats' "number one target" in a February interview with Fox News.
"I will say my race here in Texas is a battleground race," Cruz said. "The Democrats are spending over $100 million. Chuck Schumer has made clear I'm his number one target, George Soros is pouring millions of dollars into the state of Texas.
Cruz was last elected in 2018, defeating former Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke by less than 3 percentage points in what was one of the most closely watched elections of the year.
He has established himself as a leading conservative voice and vocal critic of President Joe Biden's policies in the Senate. His campaign website describes him as a "passionate fighter for limited government, national security, and economic growth." He has faced criticism from Democrats over his stance on abortion, expected to be a key issue in the election.
However, the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll found that 39 percent of Texas voters believe that immigration and border security, viewed as a potentially weak spot for Democrats, are the most important issues facing Texas.
Allred's campaign website states that if elected he would provide Texans with "honest, pragmatic leadership they deserve in the Senate." He has cast himself as a moderate, bipartisan voice in Congress, telling Newsweek in March that he wants to work with Republicans to defeat Cruz's "extremism" in November.
"I am building a broad coalition of folks who know we deserve better than Ted Cruz; that includes Democrats and Independents who are ready for new leadership as well as Republicans who think, 'I'm not that kind of Republican and I don't want to be associated with that extremism,'" he said.
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