Donald Trump's Chances of Beating Joe Biden in New Jersey: Polls
U.S. President Joe Biden (R) and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump participate in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in New Jersey, according to a new poll released on Thursday.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in New Jersey by just 1 percentage point, according to a new poll released on Thursday.
Trump and Biden became their respective party's presumptive 2024 presidential candidates earlier this year following a string of primary victories, likely setting up a rematch of the fiercely contested 2020 election. Polls have so far shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most surveys or having only marginal leads.
A new poll released on Thursday conducted by co/Efficient shows Trump leading Biden in New Jersey with 41 percent versus Biden's 40 percent, with 13 percent undecided and 7 percent supporting independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or another third party candidate. The poll, with a sample of 810 likely general election voters in New Jersey, was conducted from June 26 to 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.42 percent.
According to the poll, Trump is also leading in approval ratings with 45 percent and a disapproval rate of 50 percent, with 5 percent unsure. Meanwhile, Biden received 36 percent approval and a disapproval rate of 56 percent, with 8 percent unsure.
Newsweek has reached out to Biden's campaign via email for comment.
In response to the poll, in an emailed statement to Newsweek Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung wrote, "President Trump continues to expand the electoral map as Americans understand the dangers of a Biden presidency."
However, another previous poll from Emerson College, showed the opposite with Biden leading in the state with 46 percent versus Trump's 39 percent. That poll, with a sample of 1,000 registered voters, was conducted between March 26 to 29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
While the Garden State traditionally has a Democratic stronghold and hasn't voted for a Republican since former President George H.W. Bush in 1988, Thursday's poll comes after Republicans previously noted earlier this month that Trump could win the state and a few other Democratic ones this election cycle. At a rally in the state in May, the former president claimed that he was going to win the Garden State.
"We're going to officially play in the state of New Jersey. We're going to win New Jersey," he told the roaring crowd.
However, some New Jersey Democrats scoff at the notion the state could be won by Trump. According to CBS News, Democrat Representative Andy Kim, who is vying to take Senator Bob Menendez's U.S. Senate seat in November, said earlier this month, "If President Trump wants to waste money in New Jersey, that's on him. But I know the energy in my state—the people want something different and they're absolutely exhausted by what Trump represents."
In 2020, Biden won New Jersey by double-digit margins against Trump.
However, battleground states will play a key role in determining the result of the election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
The co/Efficient poll comes as the two participated in the first presidential debate of this year's election cycle, which was hosted by CNN in Georgia on Thursday.
On Saturday, following the debate Biden visited New Jersey to fundraise for his campaign. According to the New Jersey Globe, Biden brought in $3.7 million at a fundraiser at the home of Governor Phil Murphy and first lady Tammy Murphy.
According to a CNN poll following the debate, 67 percent of debate watchers said Trump won the debate, compared to 33 percent that sided with Biden. The poll found that ahead of the debate, 55 percent of respondents believed Trump would better perform in the debate, compared to 45 percent that sided with Biden.
Biden and Trump are expected to face off in a second debate on September 10, which will be hosted by ABC News.
Meanwhile, according to FiveThirtyEight's national aggregator poll, Trump is leading Biden nationally by 1.3 points as of Sunday morning, with 41.7 percent to 40.4 percent.
Update 06/30/24, 2:13 p.m. ET: This article was updated with a comment from Trump's spokesperson.
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