Ranking the 8 teams most likely to win Euro 2024

27/06/2024

YOU COULD make a case for others deserving this spot ahead of Belgium — particularly Austria, who unexpectedly topped a group that featured two supposedly stronger sides in France and Holland.

However, Belgium just about edge it because of the individual brilliance at their disposal.

In only one of their three group matches have they looked anything like the side who are the third-best team in the world according to the Fifa rankings.

Yet the 2-0 win over Romania is looking increasingly like the aberration rather than the shock 1-0 loss to Slovakia or Wednesday’s dull 0-0 draw with Ukraine.

It feels like we are in the dying days of the so-called ‘golden generation’. Some players are already out of the picture (Vincent Kompany, Eden Hazard, Toby Alderweireld) while others are surely nearing the end (Jan Vertonghen, Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne).

For all their prowess, this group of players have never got beyond the quarter-finals at the Euros — the country’s best performance remains in 1980 when they reached the final.

And the creditable third-place finish at the 2018 World Cup feels like a distant memory, with the team crashing out in the group stages in Qatar last time out.

It would be a major surprise if they exceeded expectations on this occasion, particularly as they have many people’s favourites, France, awaiting them in the round of 16.

7. Netherlands

The Netherlands have been unimpressive for the most part and were another side that did just enough to progress.

The 2-1 win over Poland was laboured and they were fortunate to meet a French team who were missing their best player Kylian Mbappe, amid an uninspired draw.

Much worse was the 3-2 loss to Austria, but manager Ronald Koeman will take some solace from the fact that his side had already qualified before the game and so were able to leave out some first-choice players.

Regardless, it is a low-quality Dutch team in comparison to many of the sides they have produced in the past.

They have a strong defence with players such as Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Mickey van de Ven and Stefan de Vrij.

However, at the top end of the pitch, they rely on Cody Gapko, Wout Weghorst and Memphis Depay — all good professionals. However, several teams left in the competition boast far better options in the final third.

6. Italy

The holders are not at the level they were in 2021, with several key players either retired or unavailable for different reasons.

They also looked in danger of a premature group-stage exit before a 98th-minute Mattia Zaccagni equaliser from 1-0 down broke Croatian hearts.

Nonetheless, this Italian team has resilience and cohesiveness that somewhat compensates for their lack of star power.

How they responded to the worst possible start against Albania — conceding a record-breaking goal inside 23 seconds — was impressive. Replies in the 11th and 16th minutes saw them secure a lead they never looked in danger of surrendering.

In truth, the 1-0 defeat to Spain owing to Riccardo Calafiori’s own goal was more one-sided than the scoreline suggested.

But they responded well, eventually earning a positive result in a tough final match versus Croatia.

Defensively, few better-organised teams remain in the competition, which could be enough for Luciano Spalletti’s men to go far.

They are also on the easier side of the draw for the knockout stages and will be favourites to beat Switzerland before a potential quarter-final with either England or Slovakia

5. England

The most disappointing of the countries who were hotly tipped pre-tournament.

England continue to have a squad of players that would be the envy of most teams in the tournament.

Yet it just hasn’t gelled, with the likes of Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka delivering sub-par performances that belie their impressive domestic seasons.

One of the key problems is the midfield — Rice has been invariably poor, while neither Trent Alexander-Arnold nor Conor Gallagher have done enough to nail down the position alongside him. Kobbie Mainoo impressed off the bench against Slovenia and could earn a start in the knockout stages.

On the left-hand side, right-footed Kieran Trippier has been awkwardly deployed there, which is patently hampering the team — Gareth Southgate will be hoping the injured Luke Shaw returns to full fitness sooner rather than later.

Yet there are a couple of factors in England’s favour. They have been paired on the easier side of the draw. So if they get that far, the Three Lions won’t face any of France, Germany, Spain or Portugal until the final at the earliest.

And for all the problems in attack, the defence has looked pretty secure, it kept them in the game against Denmark and they rarely looked like conceding versus Serbia and Slovenia.

Being hard to beat tends to trump flair at major tournaments, so England, for all their flaws, should not be written off yet.

4. Portugal

Portugal looked okay in their opening two matches — a 2-1 win over Czech Republic and a 3-0 victory against Turkey.

Nevertheless, the 2-0 defeat against Georgia, perhaps the least fancied side at the Euros with the longest odds of winning, will have caught people by surprise.

You could hardly call it a weak Portuguese side, as it included stars such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Dalot, João Félix and the Bayern Munich-linked João Palhinha.

However, Portugal had already qualified and won the group, so Roberto Martinez’s decision to make eight changes to his starting XI undoubtedly influenced the outcome.

The loss will hardly inspire confidence, of course, but neither will it set alarm bells ringing, as the first two games were likely a more accurate reflection of this Portuguese side’s level.

3. Spain

Spain are the only team to have maintained a 100% record through the group stages.

The opening 3-0 win, in which they outclassed an ageing Croatia outfit, has been their standout performance.

The 1-0 victories over Italy and Albania were a little more prosaic, though the latter match involved a de facto second-string side — Luis de la Fuente made 10 changes as his team had already qualified.

They have arguably the best midfield in the competition, with Rodri, Pedri and Fabián Ruiz all starting brightly.

On the wings, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are exciting players with enormous potential.

Up front, Alvaro Morata tends to attract criticism, but he scored the opening goal in the Croatia win and has an excellent record at international level — 36 goals from 76 games.

Spain are still technically excellent but their attack has often looked blunt and ineffective at recent tournaments.

There are subsequent signs that De la Fuente is overseeing an evolution or at least a tweak in style.

Interestingly, as The Athletic’s Dermot Corrigan pointed out, they had 47% of the ball against Croatia, which ended a 16-year run of 136 consecutive competitive games with more possession than their rival.

Moreover, they will be strong favourites in the round of 16, having already beaten Georgia 7-1 in qualifying.

2. Germany

Germany looked especially imperious in the opening game against Scotland that they won 5-1, though Steve Clarke’s side have proven to be one of the weakest teams in the competition.

The 2-0 win over Hungary was similarly convincing if not quite so spectacular.

The 1-1 draw against Switzerland in which they needed a last-minute goal from Niclas Füllkrug was a blip, but perhaps not too much should be read into the match, as they had already secured qualification for the knockout stages.

Experienced players such as Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan have impressed, while Jamal Musiala — who along with Füllkrug and a few others is the tournament’s second joint top scorer on two goals (Georgia’s Georges Mikautadze, who will be playing in Ligue 2 next season with Metz tops the chart on three goals) — is living up to his reputation as one of the best young players in the world.

After back-to-back group stage exits at the last two World Cups and an underwhelming round-of-16 defeat by England at Euro 2020, is this finally the tournament where a talented German squad deliver on expectations and emulates the heroes of 2014 in front of a passionate home crowd?

1. France

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France haven’t looked especially convincing, but they still arguably have the best all-round squad in the tournament.

An injury to star player Kylian Mbappe hasn’t helped matters and for the opening three matches, you got the sense that they were playing in second gear.

Like England, they have just done enough in the group stages, winning only one out of three matches and scoring just two goals — a penalty and an OG.

Yet being slow starters is nothing new for the French team. They lost to Tunisia in the group stages of the 2022 World Cup before getting to the final. Similarly, when they won the 2018 World Cup, they scored just three goals in the group stages, narrowly overcoming Australia and Peru before a Denmark stalemate.

So the evidence in the recent past suggests there will be more to come from Didier Deschamps’ accomplished collection of players.

Upcoming round-of-16 fixtures

Saturday 29 June

Switzerland v Italy (5pm)

Germany v Denmark (8pm)

Sunday 30 June

England v Slovakia (5pm)

Spain v Georgia (8pm)

Monday 1 July

France v Belgium (5pm)

Portugal v Slovenia (8pm)

Tuesday 2 July