Tracking Two Areas In The Atlantic, Including Likely Next Tropical Depression Or Storm
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The hurricane season's next tropical depression or storm is likely to form from a disturbance in the Atlantic over the coming days as we also track a second system that's headed toward Mexico with a lower chance of tropical development.
Where these systems are now: We're watching two tropical waves, basically broad areas of low pressure that can be seeds from which tropical storms develop. One of those is in the Caribbean Sea, the other in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.
The next names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Beryl, then Chris.
Eastern Atlantic system is most likely to become the season's next tropical depression or storm. This tropical wave, now tagged as Invest 95L, is moving westward in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. That's a naming convention used to identify disturbances that are being monitored for tropical development.
(MORE: What Is An Invest?)
Computer forecast models increasingly suggest this system may encounter less wind shear than usual. If it can also avoid ingesting too much dry, sinking, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert, it could develop into at least a tropical depression as soon as later this week before it arrives in the Lesser Antilles later Sunday or Monday.
One other factor favoring development is ocean warmth in this part of the Atlantic Basin is still at
Increased rainfall and gusty winds will likely affect the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday, regardless of how much this system organizes. It's too soon to tell where this system might track during the rest of next week, so check back for updates.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Caribbean system has a lower chance of tropical development, but it will soak Mexico. This tropical wave located in the northwest Caribbean has been dubbed Invest 94L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The majority of the forecast guidance suggests this system will have a chance of some development as it moves closer to the coast of Honduras, Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week.
It is expected to slide inland over those areas, then could emerge into the Bay of Campeche or southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend, before continuing a general west-northwest path toward eastern Mexico's Gulf Coast early next week.
For now, regardless of development, this system could dump locally heavy rainfall from parts of Central America to southern and eastern Mexico. Local flash flooding and landslides are possible, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Tropical Atlantic development has happened in June as recently as last year. As senior meteorologist Chris Dolce discussed, tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles where Invest 95L is located in June is unusual, but has happened in recent years, including 2023.
Last June, tropical storms Bret, then Cindy, each developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in less than a week's time. It was the first time on record two tropical storms formed east of the Lesser Antilles (east of the Caribbean islands) during the month.
Bonnie first became a tropical storm in late June 2022 east of Trinidad and Tobago before it traversed the rest of the southern Caribbean Sea, then later became an eastern Pacific hurricane.
At the end of June 2021, what would later become Hurricane Elsa first became a tropical storm in almost the same location as 2022's Bonnie.
Another Tropical Storm Bret formed in a similar area in 2017, and a short-lived Tropical Storm, Ana, also formed in late June east of the Windward Islands in 1979.
Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast as the details become clearer in the days ahead.
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