The message in Toronto-St. Paul’s loss is ‘loud and clear,’ minister says

Members of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet say they’re standing by him despite a stunning byelection defeat this week in what was once considered a reliable  Toronto seat for the Liberals.

“We got a message that was loud and clear from Toronto-St. Paul’s, what was considered a quote on quote ‘safe riding,’’ Immigration Minister Marc Miller said Wednesday, who is also a close personal friend of Trudeau’s.

“My advice as a close friend would not be given publicly, that’s for sure,” said Miller. “My advice to him as a minister and as a colleague professionally is absolutely to stay on… I think he’s the best placed to beat Pierre Poilievre.”

But Miller acknowledged the party is facing a “period of introspection.”

“This is a loss, let’s not minimize the loss. I think a lot of us have to take a step back and give our heads a shake.”

Conservative Don Stewart won Monday night’s byelection in the midtown riding beating longtime Liberal staffer Leslie Church, switching the seat from blue to red for the first time since 1993.

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“The Trudeau brand has become a liability to the party, which I don’t think they really saw coming,” said Lori Turnbull, director of the school of public administration at Dalhousie University.

What drove the loss?

Miller is one of several ministers who fanned out across the country Wednesday to make announcements but faced a wave of questions about Trudeau’s political future.

“He is still the most important leader of a generation to make transformational change in this country,” said Mental Health and Addictions Minister Ya’ara Saks, who represents the Toronto riding of York-Centre.

“I know no other leader who’s willing to be comfortable with being uncomfortable and making the changes and shifts that need to be done.”

Saks, who is a dual Canadian-Israeli citizen, was also asked whether the Liberals struggled to connect with Jewish voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s, and if they may have gravitated towards Poilievre because of his outspoken support of Israel in the conflict with Hamas.

This was the first byelection held since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

The riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s has Canada’s fifth-highest percentage of Jewish voters.

While Saks said Canadians are “shocked by the level of anti-Semitism” and “rising hate” in the country, she warned against making “assumptions” about how any community votes.

“There’s more listening to be done. But to assume that the Jewish community is a monolith, I wouldn’t posit that for any community,” she said.

A day earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, whose riding is next door to Toronto-St. Paul’s, said she still has faith in Trudeau.

“The prime minister is committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support,” Freeland said.

Trudeau has trailed Poilievre in national polls for more than a year. Ipsos polling done exclusively for Global News earlier this month suggested 68 per cent of voters believe he should step down.

However, Turnbull doubts he’ll resign as Liberal leader.

“It would be such a massive exercise for the party to say, ‘We want to go in a different direction,’ she said. “I don’t presume that they do.”

But no option looks good right now, she added.

“Is there a scenario where they follow him into the next election knowing that no seat is safe at all, and the bottom could fall out entirely? Or is there some conversation at this point where they say ‘we can try it with somebody else.'”

–with files from Canadian Press