With Humza on his way out, who is the SNP's best bet for leader?
Humza Yousaf’s resignation on Monday has left the SNP again facing the task of choosing a new leader, just 13 months after they last did so in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation in February 2023.
From the SNP’s perspective, they need someone who can help them address two key challenges.
The first is to unite their own party. Once a tightly run ship, the dissenting voices in the SNP have increased in recent years around both the direction of the leadership on specific policy issues and its strategy – or, as they would see it, lack of one – for securing independence.
They will be looking to the new leader to build consensus and bring these dissenting voices back into the fold.
However, with a general election a certainty within the next 9 months, they also need a leader who can appeal to the wider public.
Pollster Rachel Ormston says the SNP faces a new dilemma – the person best placed to help the unite the party and the person most likely to appeal to the wider public ‘may not be one and the same’
The SNP’s opinion poll ratings have been on the slide since Nicola Sturgeon left office, while Humza Yousaf’s personal ratings among the public were consistently negative over his time as First Minister.
The party will be looking for someone who can stem and, ideally, reverse this decline to avoid them being beaten into second place by a resurgent Labour party.
With speculation on the likely contenders for SNP leader already reaching fever pitch in Holyrood political circles, who might be best placed to rise to these two challenges?
Ipsos fielded a poll in Scotland immediately after Humza Yousaf resigned, to find out what the public makes of some of the potential runners and riders.
Our polling shows that among a list of potential SNP candidates, only Swinney and Forbes have any real cut-through with the public.
Half of the Scottish public do not know who Jenny Gilruth, Neil Gray or Màiri McAllan are, and a third do not know who Stephen Flynn, Shona Robison or Angus Robertson are.
Only Kate Forbes and John Swinney are well enough known for the public to have formed a view on them.
And the public appears to rate them equally – 37 per cent said each of them would do a good job as FM, while 24 per cent and 23 per cent respectively said Kate Forbes and John Swinney would do a bad job (the rest were either unsure if they would do a good or bad job or were unsure who they were).
However, when asked to choose between the SNP politicians on our list, Kate Forbes is the favourite among the public as a whole – 26 per cent think she would make the best First Minister, versus 20 per cent for John Swinney.
No other potential candidate had more than 7 per cent of the public behind them (and 20 per cent preferred ‘none of them’).
Forbes also appeals more than Swinney to those who have voted for opposition parties, and to those who voted No in the 2014 Independence Referendum (though Swinney is ahead among 2014 Yes voters).
But while Kate Forbes is ahead with the public, John Swinney is clearly ahead with SNP voters – 30 per cent of 2021 SNP voters said he would be the best First Minister, versus 21 per cent for Kate Forbes.
In fact, Forbes appears to divide SNP voters, with 22 per cent of those who voted for them in 2021 saying they think she would do a bad job as First Minister, versus just 10 per cent who say the same of John Swinney.
This creates a new dilemma for the SNP – the person best placed to help them unite their party and the person most likely to appeal to the wider public, beyond their base, may not be one and the same.
Swinney may be party favourite ‘but public wants Forbes in Bute House’
Rachel Ormston, is Research Director, Ipsos Scotland
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