What to expect this summer from AccuWeather's seasonal outlook

Let’s in in a in in a couple of sentences here, the summer highlights across the country, what are the big highlights? I think overall a warm summer we’re going to see also some severe weather lasting a little longer than usual and a little bit more activity coming into the Northwest, kind of lingering throughout most of the summer season. Couple of fronts and disturbances and hot and dry across the interior Southwest. I know Arielle is thinking about buying a pool. She’s not thinking about it. I don’t know if she’s going to do it. But based on the temperature forecast here, Paul, some good pool weather man, that’s probably going to be a lot of good sales too out there. So I definitely check it out. Yeah. You can see two areas that stick out right now that are drier than average at the present time, the interior Southwest into the southwest plains experiencing some hotter conditions there, temperatures over 100° for longer strings. And then the upper Midwest and Great Lakes area, another area that will dry out out the summer season. That’s another area we’re focusing on hot temperatures certainly right now the big story is severe weather, Paul. Typically that severe weather starts to wane as we get into the months of June and July. Is there any chance that severe weather could linger a little longer this year? Yeah, I think so. We had for April, the preliminary reports are 362 tornadoes that double the average. I think the May is still going to be active as well and it’s going to go into June and July. I do feel that there’s going to be a lot of action, a little farther S than normal. I think places like Nebraska, SE, South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, they could still be in the path. The areas that have been hit so far looks like it could still be active all the way into Midsummer Southwest monsoon. So critical to the water across the southwest. Paul, is it above or below historical average this summer, slightly below but better than the last two years but starting late and that’s why we still have dry conditions early on across the Southwest. And the main areas that get could get hit more is like New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Western areas may miss out a little bit this year. You’re talking about the drought in the Southwest and of course with the limited monsoon, that’s one area. But I noticed that you’re concerned across the northern tier of the US for drought this summer. Yeah, we’re erasing the spring drought across Missouri, Iowa and Illinois. But expanding across the northern Rockies, northern Plains, Great Lakes and even into the interior Northeast, we could set up in the fall for a fire season. One concern I have Bernie, North Carolina and Florida, 29% of normal and Raleigh for the month of April, 50% in Florida. Keep close tab on that area of the country. They should start to see the rain later on the season. Of course, what is the summer without the hurricane season? And as we’ve been talking about for months now, Paul, you and the long range teams and our hurricane expert Alex Silva very worried about a busy, busy hurricane season. Yeah, the water temperatures are still very warm across the Caribbean in the main development area. The Gulf of Mexico is warming up as well 2025 named storms we’re expecting. One thing that we’ve noticed is farther N it’s cooled off the waters around Bermuda, Northeast Bahamas, but it’s early for them still watching the Gulf Coast, Texas and Louisiana especially early on could have a couple of systems of concern. You can see the clusters based on our analog data shows an area in Texas that could get hit quite often this coming season and also the around the Florida peninsula as well up to the North Carolina coast. Still some action probably later in the season. As you look at the Carolina coast, Paula, every day, what do I ask you? Home grown development. Eventually we’re going to be dealing with it. There’s a pretty good odds that we’ll get our first named storm before the hurricane season begins. June 1st, I think. So not early in May, but maybe the second-half of May. We still have to watch carefully as things start to quiet calm down as far as the West to east flow pattern. I think that can still come up pretty quickly on us later in May. All right, AccuWeather League Long Range Expert Meteorologist Paul Pasaloc. Paul, thanks for joining us here this morning.