NASCAR at Atlanta odds, predictions, start time: Proven model gives surprising 2024 Ambetter Health 400 picks

NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. brings out a caution after hitting the wall during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

It was a 1-2 finish for Hendrick Motorsports at Daytona with William Byron edging out Alex Bowman, thus ending the team’s decade-long drought at the Daytona 500. Now, Hendrick will gather at a track it’s had much more success at with NASCAR at Atlanta on Sunday. The 2024 Ambetter Health 400 takes place at 3 p.m. ET, and Hendrick has collected three victories over its last four trips to Atlanta Motor Speedway. Byron has two of those wins, with Chase Elliott having the other, entering NASCAR at Atlanta 2024.

Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano top the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 odds. They are 10-1 co-favorites, while Byron and Elliott are both at 12-1 in the 2024 NASCAR Atlanta odds. Nestled in between those odds are a trio of drivers at 11-1 in Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell. Before scouring the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Ambetter Health 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021.

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard.

Top 2024 Ambetter Health 400 predictions

For the 2024 Ambetter Health 400, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he’s a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. He ended last season on a high note, winning the NASCAR championship race in Phoenix, and appeared to be on his way to a Daytona win last week. Chastain led with four laps to go before a wreck took him out of the running. He has plenty of confidence behind the wheel at the moment and owns a favorable history at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Chastain has a pair or runners-up over his last four trips to Atlanta and has led for multiple laps in three of those four races. His team in Trackhouse Racing also netted another NASCAR at Atlanta runner-up courtesy of teammate Daniel Suarez in the last Atlanta race in July 2023. Just six drivers have a better average finish at the track than Chastain since 2021 (minimum three starts). Meanwhile, 10 drivers have shorter odds than Chastain for Atlanta, so he’s a steal at 20-1 and shouldn’t be overlooked with 2024 Ambetter Health 400 bets, according to the model.

Another massive shocker: Joey Logano, the Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup. Despite winning the pole and leading 45 laps last week at Daytona, Logano was involved in the big crash late and wound up with a disappointing 32nd-place finish in the 2024 Daytona 500.

Now he’ll head back to Atlanta as the defending champion of the Ambetter Health 400 but that was his only win of the season in 2023. Logano finished 17th in the summer race in Atlanta and his 12th-place finish in the NASCAR standings was his worst since missing the playoffs entirely in 2017. He’s now finished outside the top 10 in six of his last nine Cup starts. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Atlanta odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Ambetter Health 400 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard, all from the model that has called 15 winners since 2021.

2024 Ambetter Health 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Atlanta picks at SportsLine

Joey Logano 9-1

Denny Hamlin 19-2

Brad Keselowski 10-1

Ryan Blaney 10-1

Christopher Bell 10-1

Kyle Larson 12-1

William Byron 12-1

Chase Elliott 12-1

Kyle Busch 14-1

Martin Truex Jr. 15-1

Bubba Wallace 18-1

Tyler Reddick 20-1

Ross Chastain 20-1

Erik Jones 22-1

Chris Buescher 22-1

Ty Gibbs 25-1

Austin Cindric 28-1

Alex Bowman 28-1

Michael McDowell 33-1

Daniel Suarez 35-1

Corey Lajoie 40-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40-1

Austin Dillon 45-1

Chase Briscoe 50-1

Noah Gragson 60-1

Ryan Preece 65-1

John Hunter Nemechek 65-1

Josh Berry 75-1

Todd Gilliland 75-1

Carson Hocevar 75-1

Harrison Burton 100-1

Daniel Hemric 100-1

Zane Smith 100-1

Justin Haley 100-1

Josh Williams 150-1

Kaz Grala 250-1

BJ McLeod 500-1