What do local results mean for general election?

Local elections make pretty poor predictors of general election performance, but that said, there are few broad themes that we can pull out. It’s been a pretty dismal few days for the Conservative Party. They lost just under half the seats that they were contesting. They lost in some key mayoral races like North Yorkshire, which is home to Rishi Sunak’s own seat and not an area that should be friendly to the Labour Party. And in the narrowest of races they lost here as well in the West Midlands. The chink of light is that they held on to the Tees Valley, although swing to the Labour Party will still be of concern. And it does appear to have staved off the rebellion against Rishi Sunak, although we don’t yet know whether the loss in the West Midlands will reanimate those rebels the Labour Party? Will they March on? Although their Gaza position does appear to be costing them votes in important areas like Oldham and in Birmingham. There was a big vote went to the Independent Pro gas, a candidate. Labour still won the election, but it was costing them votes. The Liberal Democrats? They have had a decent election as of the Green Party, both of them picking up seats and Reform UK, at least in the Blackpool South, by election started to look as though they may well become an electoral force. That’s something that will give the Conservatives even more sleepless nights than the local council results.