Tampa Bay Lightning's Roster Dilemma Could Get Even Tougher If They Lose in First Round

Steven Stamkos Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

Time flies when you’re having fun, and few NHL teams have had as much fun in recent years as the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Bolts have won two Stanley Cups in the past four years and made an additional Cup final in one of those four seasons. No franchise can claim as much recent success as Tampa. But after being eliminated in the first round of last season’s playoffs, the Lightning are in a position to be dumped early once again – this time, in their first-round series against their intra-state rivals, the Florida Panthers.

The Bolts have been competitive against Florida, but after the first two games of the series, Tampa Bay is trailing 2-0 and on the verge of being sent home early for the second straight season.

There’s still time for the Lightning to turn things around, of course. And their history suggests they can do it. In the era of current Bolts captain Steven Stamkos, Tampa has lost in the first round just twice, and both times were sweeps (2019 to Columbus and 2014 to Montreal). But if they don’t get out of Round 1 – and even if they do – the Lightning are steaming straight toward a crossroads.

Indeed, Tampa Bay really has no alternative but to make tough roster decisions in the months ahead. As per PuckPedia, the Lightning have 17 players under contract for next season and under $12 million in salary cap space. That leaves six roster spots to be filled out, and that’s where there are major challenges for Bolts GM Julien BriseBois.

Not only does BriseBois have to provide depth and secondary scoring, but he also has to figure out what to do with Stamkos, who will be a UFA this summer. If Stamkos does make it to market, there will be a slew of suitors ready to take him off Tampa Bay’s hands. That would leave a massive void, not only in terms of the Lightning’s offense but also in regard to their leadership core and their overall championship pedigree.

Otherwise, the Bolts have to decide how they can bring back a good fit like winger Anthony Duclair and solidify their defense corps, which is far from the best in the game.

The Panthers have taken advantage of Tampa’s injury-decimated back end in this year’s first round, and acquiring a veteran D-man or two while on a budget will not be easy. Getting a healthy Mikhail Sergachev will eventually provide a boost, but the days when Tampa Bay had one of the sport’s best back ends are ending, if not over already.

BriseBois has said the organization must revisit Stamkos’ contract situation at season’s end. If the Lightning get eliminated in the first round for two straight seasons, why would management bend over backward to keep the lineup together?

As we’re seeing in Pittsburgh and Washington, the drop-off point for teams can arrive abruptly and provide sustained disappointment until the team faces the hard choice to begin rebuilding from the ground up. Tampa Bay still has a wealth of talent, but even then, they were only good enough to be a wild-card team.

If Stamkos moves on – let’s say, for argument’s sake, he goes to Utah – wouldn’t the Lightning’s odds of getting back to the post-season drop significantly? We think it would. We suspect the Bolts will be running hard just to stand still, and with or without Stamkos, their goal of becoming a bona fide Cup front-runner again may prove to be a bridge too far.

With a few bounces in their favor, the Lightning might be tied or leading their current series against the Panthers. But everything has its consequences, and if Florida eliminates them, the Lightning may decide they have no choice but to bite the bullet and re-jig their roster. Some would say that’s the smartest road ahead for them, and avoiding the trap of just trying to make the playoffs and hoping for an improbable post-season run is important to their short- and long-term well-being. They may well have to take two steps backward, or a lateral step or two, before they can take the next competitive steps forward.

The recent glory years for Tampa are still fresh in the minds of Lightning fans, but Father Time waits for no man, and the Bolts are on the clock to try and salvage their series against Florida. Unless there’s a reversal of fortune in the five games that remain against the Panthers, the Lightning are bound for a new era. And this era likely won’t include champagne celebrations and a Cup parade.

It doesn’t sound great to Bolts fans accustomed to playoff success, but it’s the reality of the parity-filled NHL. The Lightning don’t have a magic pass to deliver them more Cups in the near future. Like every other team in the league, they’ve got to face reality realistically, which means tackling the negatives and building on the positives.