'We are at a turning point': Geopolitics professor expects more integrated European defenses

Hi, I’m Michelle Caruso Cabrera, CNBC contributor live here in Milan, Italy at the Bocconi campus, where there’s a very large conference happening here today, the Influence, Relevance and Growth Conference Co sponsored by CNBC. And it’s all about trying to increase the competitive state of Europe and European businesses. And joining me right now is one of the esteemed professors at the Bocconi Business School, Sylvie Goulard. Nice to have you here. Sorry, you don’t need to switch the mic over there. Good morning. Nice to have you here. You’re a professor here, but want to talk to you in the context of having been the former minister of the armed forces under Emmanuel Macron and also having been the former deputy governor of the Bank of France. There’s a lot of concern in the world right now about the the state of the defense industry because there’s not a lot of capacity, industrial capacity in various parts of the world to help supply Ukraine. And then in addition, there’s a lack of integration in Europe when it comes to defense. Do you see that as a concern? How are you thinking about that at this moment in time? It’s certainly a concern because it is true that we are under equipped, but it is also the opportunity to finally move towards a more integrated European Union. All polls show that the Europeans are not against which is, which is a main achievement of the previous generation. So the idea of having a mixed armed forces with Germans, French etcetera is at least in the answers in theory not an issue. But it’s true that before you are build you, you need to build trust and to have a very moral commitment to something to envisage a common defence. So it’s a long journey, but I really believe that we are at a turning point. What’s driving that opinion across the European countries? Is it the war in Ukraine? Russia’s invasion? Is it also the concerns about whether or not Donald Trump is re elected and what he’s saying about NATO and potentially leaving NATO? First a war on the European soil, Second, a very threatening world they are. There is not only Russia, but a kind of informal alliance around Russia, providing materials etcetera, from Asia to to the Middle East. And the situation in Gaza and 3rd of course the fact that the US may change, even if we should remember that Barack Obama in and over 2016 already warned that the Europeans should take their own fate in their hands. Or that Donald Trump, I was Minister of Defence in 2017, told also the Europeans that they should take a larger burden. But once again, it’s a change that is not a minor one. We need external pressure, as always. I hope it will be quick enough. So there’s talk that in the United States, if Donald Trump comes to become president again, he’s going to insist on a 3% allocation for defense budgets across the the country, across the continent. When it comes to being members of NATO, you’re not even getting into 2% in many countries right now. What? What’s the possibility? What’s the reaction going to be to that? Well, first, if I may, I would say that I will be more concern for European defence if if Trump is not elected, to put it this way. I mean, in any case, whatever the result of the election is the question of autonomy, capacity to work with the Americans, but with all means and and more capacities will stay. So we should not say, oh, Trump is not elected, then the the the issue is settled. That’s the reason why I mentioned Obama before 2nd. Of course it is about materials, it is about money at a time where we also need to do the climate transition. I insist on that. It’s not either we deal with defence or we face the the the, the climate and environmental threats. We need to to do both at the same time. But we could also, if we create an integrated European defence, have economies of scale and some countries are already above 3%. Greece, the Baltic states, Poland, so, but not the big guys, right? Not not Germany, not France, But when you have 3% of the German GDP, it’s it’s a huge amount of money. Already the Germans took a very important decision to increase their military budget. We should not underestimate what it means in historical term, in political terms in Germany. And the idea is not just to pile up money, it’s also to use it in the right way. Is there? You mentioned there’s commitment. You feel across the populations of the varying countries to have an integrated defense system. Is there still a commitment to Ukraine? We’re seeing some fraying of that in the United States. What about in Europe? Wars are always lasting much longer than people believe, and there is a fatigue in the country itself. In the countries around, people are worried. So the only thing we can wish is that we can have a breakthrough and and and and at a certain moment not continue like this because it’s very difficult to foresee how public opinions should evolve if the situation was supposed to. But is Europe still committed to victory or is there increasing talk of a negotiated settlement of some kind? To be honest, I think it’s too early to say and I’m not in a position to say anything on that. We stick to international law. We consider it was an aggression war. So we will see the day the question is asked, what should I have asked you or did you expect me to ask you? Oh, I don’t know, maybe maybe something about the US and EU. To be honest, I think either the US plays again the role it played between the end of the Second World War and let’s say Kennedy Johnson as a driving force of European integration and it will be good for the US and good for Europe. Or some people play with the temptation of dividing the Europeans and then it will be a lose, lose game for the US and for Europe.