‘IF' Improves Over the Weekend as Grosses Struggle to Reach $100 Million

"IF" (Paramount) may have fallen short of its anticipated $40 million opening, but the glass is at least half-full. Preview and initial numbers suggested it could end up around $28 million; instead, its initial estimate is $35 million.

That improvement, along with its A Cinemascore, suggests a film that could stick around. It would be a real boost for the cause of original non-franchise production. Domestic on "IF" is better than foreign, which stands at $24 million, $20 million from this weekend. That puts it at $59 million worldwide.

The full weekend is projected to hit $99 million. If that becomes $100 million, it would mark the first time since Easter. By comparison, 2023 saw every weekend from April 7 through mid-August hit that level. In 2019, with significantly lower ticket prices, that was the case from post-Super Bowl through Labor Day.

‘The Fall Guy' ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection

Any positive news is welcome. We are three weeks into summer playtime and now have three new releases - including "The Fall Guy" (Universal) and "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" (Disney) - setting an uneven pace. Through the weekend, May grossed around $340 million; last May totaled a little under $800 million. Next week "Furiosa" (Warner Bros.) and "The Garfield Movie" (Sony) over Memorial Day will improve things, but probably not enough to meet expectations for the month. Through this weekend, year to date is 21 percent off last year.

"The Fall Guy" held up better in its third weekend, with a 38 percent drop for fourth place with about $8.5 million. That puts the $130 million-budget film at $63 million domestic, which will get it to $80 million-$85 million total, maybe double that worldwide. Short of expectations, but not a disaster.

The second weekend of "Apes" dropped 55 percent with $26 million. That's not an unusual fall, particularly against a viable new opener. It is at $101 million domestic. Against its $160 million budget, it should be a mild success but not a breakout.

"The Strangers: Chapter 1" (Lionsgate), first of a horror trilogy directed by action veteran Renny Harlin, took third place with $12 million. The low-budget ($9 million) film did far better than "Back to Black," the Amy Winehouse biopic made by Studio Canal and released by Focus in the U.S. It reached #5, but with weak reviews only managed around $2.9 million.

Playing exclusively in IMAX theaters, "The Blue Angels" (MGM Amazon), the documentary on the military aviation unit grossed $1.3 million in only 225 theaters. Even more impressive, it played only partial shows at most theaters (with "Apes" also on IMAX screens).

"Challengers" (MGM Amazon), concurrent with its PVOD release, dropped only 33 percent at #6 and now stands at $43 million.

‘Babes'

SXSW breakout comedy "Babes" (Neon) is the sole first- or second-week specialized release to report grosses. Opening in 12 theaters in five cities, the unexpected pregnancy tale opened to a respectable $171,000, or about $14,000 per theater. Its six New York/Los Angeles dates averaged around $20,000. It expands nationwide this Friday.

The Top 10

1. IF (Paramount) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 46; Est. budget: $110 million

$35,000,000 in 4,041 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $8,661; Cumulative: $35,000,000

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Disney) Week 2; Last weekend #1

$26,000,000 (-55%) in 4,075 (no change) theaters; PTA: $6,380; Cumulative: $101,240,000

3. The Strangers: Chapter 1 (Lionsgate) NEW – Cinemascore: C; Metacritic: 44; Est. budget: $9 million

$12,000,000 in 2,856 theaters; PTA: $4,202; Cumulative: $12,000,000

4. The Fall Guy (Universal) Week 3; Last weekend #2

$8,450,000 (-38%) in 3,845 (-163) theaters; PTA: $2,198; Cumulative: $62,980,000

5. Back to Black (Focus) NEW – Cinemascore: 43; Metacritic: B+

$2,850,000 in 2,010 theaters; PTA: $1,518; Cumulative: $2,850,000

6. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Week 4; Last weekend #3; also on PVOD

$2,941,000 (-33%) in 1,938 (-671) theaters; PTA: $1,418; Cumulative: $43,510,000

7. Tarot (Sony) Week 3; Last weekend #4

$2,000,000 (-41%) in 2,334 (-770) theaters; PTA: $857; Cumulative: $15,433,000

8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Warner Bros.) Week 8; Last weekend #5; also on PVOD

$1,710,000 (-35%) in 1,773 (-758) theaters; PTA: $964; Cumulative: $194,405,000

9. The Blue Angels (Amazon MGM) NEW

$1,311,000 in 225 theaters; PTA: $5,774; Cumulative: $1,311,000

10. Unsung Hero (Lionsgate) Week 4; Last weekend #6

$1,095,000 (-57%) in 1,736 (-536) theaters; PTA: $631; Cumulative: $19,069,000

Other specialized/independent titles

Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded.

Babes (Neon) NEW – Metacritic: 73; Festivals include: South by Southwest 2024

$171,321 in 12 theaters; PTA: $14,277

I Saw the TV Glow (A24) Week 3

$1,002,000 in 469 (+448) theaters; Cumulative: $1,482,000

Wildcat (Oscilloscope) Week 3 12

$139,010 in 101 (+89) theaters; Cumulative: $279,497

Evil Does Not Exist (Sideshow/Janus) Week 3

$128,500 in 103 (+69) theaters; Cumulative: $351,403

The Round Up (Blue Fox) Week 4

$92,917 in 34 (-19) theaters; Cumulative: $885,070

Aggro Dr1ft (EDGRLD) Week 4 (non-consecutive) 20

$ in theaters; Cumulative: (est.) $120,000 +

Civil War (A24) Week 6

$1,050,000 in 1,192 (-1,092) theaters; Cumulative: $67,275,000

Wicked Little Letters (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 7

$81,896 in 132 (-388) theaters; Cumulative: $4,813,000

La Chimera (Neon) Week 8

$18,000 in 20 (-15) theaters; Cumulative: $806,639

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