3 massive Braves offseason risks that could come back to haunt them

The Atlanta Braves offseason went according to plan, as Alex Anthopoulos kept the majority of their offensive core around while upgrading the starting rotation, bullpen and outfield depth. If Anthopoulos had a check list filled out by Braves fans prior to making any moves this winter, it would have included all three of those positions.

Atlanta didn’t have much money to play with, which is why many of the moves they did make came via trade. The Braves upgraded their bullpen by trading for Aaron Bummer. They added a rotation arm in Chris Sale, also acquired via trade from the Boston Red Sox. Their new left fielder, former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, was sent to Atlanta in a deal with the Seattle Mariners.

As impressive as these trades may be on the surface, they also bring with them quite a bit of risk. Said players wouldn’t be available for relatively cheap if they offered guaranteed production.

3. Braves took an unnecessary risk with Jarred Kelenic

The Braves trade for Kelenic came cheap, so it’s not like Anthopoulos gave up anything of substance for him. However, what Anthopoulos did do was punt on any internal solution, including Vaughn Grissom, Eddie Rosario and more. Rosario left via free agency, while Grissom was traded to the Red Sox for Sale.

Should Kelenic fall flat on his face as he often did in Seattle, then the Braves are right back where they started with few options behind him. Kelenic is a former top prospect in the Mariners system who couldn’t live up to the hype. The reasons for that remain a mystery. In 2023, Kelenic started hot before slumping and eventually breaking his foot in humiliating fashion. That was the last straw for him in the Emerald City, as David O’Brien explains:

“The Braves believe not having the pressure to carry a heavy load in a stacked Braves lineup could help him relax and realize his full potential. In 2023, Kelenic hit .297 with 10 homers and a .914 OPS in his first 45 games before slumping and breaking his foot kicking a dugout cooler in frustration,” O’Brien wrote in The Athletic.

Perhaps the biggest mistake the Braves made with Kelenic is handing him the job outright in spring training. At the very least, Kelenic should have to show some consistent growth to get the job over Luke Williams, Forrest Wall and more. A lack of competition at the position will make Kelenic too comfortable, a feat he has yet to earn in the big leagues.

2. The Braves are counting on an Aaron Bummer resurgence

The Atlanta Braves traded Michael Soroka and more to the Chicago White Sox for Aaron Bummer, a relief pitcher who finished last season with a 6.79 ERA. Of course, ERA doesn’t always tell the entire story.

Bummer relies heavily on a power sinker and struggled mightily with his control in the south side of Chicago this past year. He had a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and 13.5 percent walk rate in 2023, a far cry from 2022 and 2021, when he finished with an ERA of 3.14 over 83 innings.

Atlanta has consistently been able to help once-reliable relievers turn around their careers. The one thing Bummer can do is miss barrels, as he ranked in the 99th percentile for that mark in 2023 despite his rough ERA. Bummer’s struggles were all about control, something the Braves have experience correcting — look no further than Pierce Johnson, who was acquired at the trade deadline from the Rockies last year.

Bummer is relieved to be playing for an organization with championship aspirations, which should increase his motivation to improve:

“But to come over here, in an organization and clubhouse where there is only one common goal — the one common goal is to win a World Series — it’s pretty awesome. It’s exciting,” Bummer said, per David O’Brien of The Athletic.

Of course, the other side of that coin is that Bummer struggles, and forces Anthopoulos to improve his bullpen on the fly after giving up significant assets for a once-great reliever.

1. Is Chris Sale really the Braves rotation answer?

Chris Sale’s 2023 season ended on a high note for the Boston Red Sox, as he had a 3.92 ERA after rejoining the team in August. The Braves are banking on getting that guy, rather than the former ace who lacked control and poise on the mound for much of the last two seasons.

Atlanta traded Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox in exchange for Sale. While Grissom didn’t have a place on the Braves roster as currently constructed, he has shown a lot of talent with a bat in his hands. In Boston, he is likely to slot in as the everyday second baseman, while Trevor Story plays shortstop. There was talk earlier this offseason of Grissom playing the outfield, but that was quickly put to bed when the Braves acquired Kelenic.

Sale should be a fine fit in the Braves rotation. However, his acquisition doesn’t fully solve Atlanta’s problems. Anthopoulos is taking his rotation year by year. Instead, a step back would be recommended.

Max Fried is a free agent after this year and will likely leave this winter barring an unexpected extension. Charlie Morton is in the final year of his deal, and sounds like a man ready for his baseball career to end on a high note. Even if Sale performs well on his new deal, the Braves may have to dip into free agency to add to their rotation next winter.

Anthopoulos knows this, which is why he reportedly made a competitive offer to Aaron Nola, who ended up re-signing with the Phillies. Sale isn’t the lone answer to the Braves rotation woes, and it’s a little surprising they didn’t make a bigger splash.

This article was originally published on fansided.com as 3 massive Braves offseason risks that could come back to haunt them.