Unexpected warning sign for Trump in Indiana GOP primary

Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign stop in Sumter, South Carolina on Feb 19 – JULIA NIKHINSON/AFP

Nikki Haley’s “zombie campaign” has picked up more 20 per cent of the vote in Indiana’s Republican primary, in a warning sign for Donald Trump.

Despite dropping out of the race in March after being trounced by Mr Trump, Ms Haley took 128,000 votes to the former president’s 462,000 in the state. Ballots cast for candidates who have withdrawn from the race are often called zombie votes.

Mr Trump has been the presumptive Republican presidential candidate for months and had a clean sweep of Indiana’s counties – but in some he was pushed down to below two-thirds of the vote.

His worst performance was in Marion county, which contains the state’s capital, Indianapolis, where he took 65 per cent to Ms Haley’s 35 per cent. Mr Trump’s lead was also softer in surrounding counties Hamilton, Allen and Hendricks.

The former president has been a clear front-runner throughout the primary season, but has struggled to dominate suburban areas.

Ms Haley, unlike many of her former primary competitors, has pointedly refused to endorse Mr Trump.

Instead, as she suspended her campaign following the Super Tuesday primary results in early March, she said it was up to him “to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him”.

Joe Biden, the US president, has made explicit overtures to her voters.

“Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters,” he said when she dropped out of the race.

A few weeks later, his campaign spent $1 million (£800,000) on an advert showing clips of Mr Trump attacking Ms Haley and her supporters, which ran for three weeks across battleground states.

One of those states was Pennsylvania where, in last month’s primary, Ms Haley took ⁦158,000 votes (16.6 per cent) to her former boss’ 793,000 (83.4 per cent).

Donald Trump at an election night watch party in Columbia on Feb 24, the day he defeated opponent Nikki Haley in the South Carolina Republican primary – Win McNamee/Getty

It was reported last week that three sources close to the Trump campaign confirmed there had been no outreach from either side. One Republican operative told CNN that the divisions between the camps could cost Mr Trump the state.

Indiana is generally regarded as a safe Republican state, and was last won by a Democrat in 2008.

In 2020, Mr Trump swept the state with 57 per cent of the vote, while Mr Biden took a handful of counties – including Marion.

At the time, Mr Trump’s running mate was Mike Pence, the state’s former governor and congressman. He too is withholding his support from his former boss.

Danielle Vinson, a politics professor at Furman University, said the danger to the Trump campaign depended on the party affiliation of those who voted for Ms Haley.

“Indiana doesn’t register voters by party, so it is possible – though not highly likely – that those Haley supporters could be Democrats,” she said. “If, however, those voters are primarily Republicans and Independents, that might be worrisome for Trump.”

Prof Vinson added that Indiana “will vote for Trump in the general election”, but the results would be more significant if replicated in a battleground state.

“Trump certainly can’t afford to lose Republican and Independent votes in any significant number in swing states and win the general election,” she said.

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