Ukraine says it shot down a key Russian spy plane — and Russia's latest moves suggest it's worried

A Beriev A-50 early warning and control aircraft flies over the Kremlin and Red Square in downtown Moscow to mark the 75th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, May 9, 2020. Photo by YURI KADOBNOV/AFP via Getty Images

• Russia appears panicked after Ukraine reportedly took down one of Moscow’s spy planes. 
• UK intel said that it appeared Russia deployed another A-50, but away from Ukraine. 
• This “likely demonstrates a tacit Russian acknowledgment of a successful targeting operation,” UK intel said. 

Ukraine’s military said this week that its air force shot down a key Russian spy plane — and Moscow’s latest moves suggest that it is panicked about losing yet another valuable aircraft.

Kyiv said that on Sunday, it destroyed a prized Russian A-50 radar early-warning plane, along with an Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post, amid Moscow’s grinding nearly two-year war with Ukraine.

British intelligence said on Friday that a Russian A-50 “almost certainly exploded and subsequently crashed into the Sea of Azov,” which is more than 50 miles into Russian-held territory and away from the front lines of the war.

The UK’s Ministry of Defense said in its latest daily intelligence update that it appeared that on Wednesday the Russian Air Force deployed another A-50 aircraft, but this time over land within Russian territory near the Krasnodar region and further east from Ukraine.

“This activity is highly indicative of a reduced risk appetite for the airframes and an attempt to preserve remaining A-50 Mainstay [NATO’s name for the decades-old Soviet-era Beriev A-50] at a loss to its overall effectiveness over Ukraine,” British intelligence said.

The UK’s Ministry of Defense added that despite no official position from Russia on the loss of the A-50, this strategy “likely demonstrates a tacit Russian acknowledgment of a successful targeting operation by the Ukrainians against a high value air asset.”

“If the loss” of the A-50 — which British intelligence described as a “key enabler for Russian operations over Ukraine providing airborne early warning of threats as well as command and control functionality” — was “an accident, then such a decision is unlikely to have been required,” the UK intelligence group said.

Gustav Gressel, a missile defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider that the destruction of one of Russia’s limited A-50 aircraft would be “of course a significant loss” for Moscow.

“They have very few aircraft, and they have a very important role for Russian air operations on that southern front, the Zaporizhzhia front. They direct fighters. They are important because they can look over the normal horizon that a normal air defense radar can see. They give warning to Russian fighter bomber patrols when they are approached by Ukrainian fighters,” Gressel said of the A-50.

Gressel called it “very nasty for Ukrainian aircraft if these things are operating.”

Russia would not risk losing another A-50 after the destruction of one so far away from the front lines of the war, explained Gressel.

“So the Russians, and that’s already visible, have directed their other A-50s to stay further from the line of control,” Gressel said.

And this method by Russia gives Ukraine an upper hand, according to the missile defense expert.

“This eases up the burden for Ukrainian fighters to approach Russian fighter bombers and to try to shoot them down when they’re bombing Ukrainian cities or the frontline,” Gressel said. “And that’s basically the result Ukrainians want to have because they want to protect their frontline and their cities, especially those very close to the front or to the Russian border.”