U.S. export controls on Chinese firms could 'get even worse' if Trump is re-elected: Analyst
Great question. I think that the latest developments of course are were somewhat long in the making under consideration because some in Congress as you noted have felt that any licenses for Huawei for example are are problematic. But these are these particular licenses appear to be for semiconductors going into consumer devices like tablets. So it’s it’s unclear what provoked this. It’s probably be because Huawei of Huawei’s considerable rebound over the last six months in terms of its some of his consumer products and handsets. But I think in terms of the relationship you know this is a complicated C Jin paying during the the phone call last month with President Biden put technology controls on par with some other sensitive issues in the relationship like Taiwan. And she said things like we will not stand idly by as the US ratchets up these controls. So I think that you know this, for the remainder of the Biden administration, we’re going to see more controls like this. And then when Trump comes in, I think there’s still assuming Trump comes in in November. If he wins the election, I think things could get even worse because there are some in the Republican camp, for example, that would like to see even stricter measures against companies like Huawei. Paul, you know this probably caught your eye as well, and it certainly did mind recent piece in Foreign Policy co-authored by Matt Pottinger. Right? Used to be a journal. Then became a deputy national security advisor under Trump, won that administration. You know, he threw a lot of red meat out there, threw a lot of shade on the Biden administration for not being hawkish enough on China. And the line that caught me is, you know, he was invoking Douglas MacArthur, almost calling, I mean, he was on the verge of calling for regime change in China. And this is a guy that is likely to be appointed in if it does become Trump 2.0. So it seems to me like there’s there’s no other way for this relationship to go but tensor. What do you think? Yeah, I think it’s important to note that the Biden administration has really worked hard to try to stabilize the relationship, manage the relationship to avoid conflict in the words of some senior U.S. officials. So that doesn’t mean that there aren’t these other major issues around, you know, tech policy around Chinese support for Russia and about Taiwan and the South China Sea. So these are all issues that are very long term and sort of structural and there’s not, there has not been a lot of progress on this. So the the Pottinger Gallagher article I think was a little bit of do a little bit of controversy in the China Washington community by by you know basically I think overstating China’s intentions and then the the response, the the, the, the proposed response from the US but it represents certainly one at one part of the foreign policy establishment in Washington that wants to see tougher approaches to China across the board. But I think and I think that’s why the the election will be very important in November because I think the Biden team is at least trying to keep the relationship stable. There’s a very serious, deep risking channel between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and that that served pretty well to to to damp down some of the tensions around issues like Taiwan.