Two rate cuts appears likely as consumer spending begins to slow, says UBS' Julie Fox

Let’s get out of UBS’s Julie Fox. Not just on today, Julie, a little scary at the beginning of the day, that GDP number coming in week, we’ve had some hot inflation data. I mean, are we ready to use the S word stagflation or not yet? Well, I think the mood of the market right now is, is very anxious. Today’s GDP report, like you said, did not help. Investors want to know what comes next when it comes to inflation and the Fed. But we’re still positive on stocks for 2024. Nothing over the past few weeks. The market declines, worries about inflation, geopolitical concerns. Changed our market outlook for 2024 and we’re sticking with our year end target on the S&P 500 of 5200. That’s another 4% gain from current levels. So not huge upside, but again when you factor in the mood we’ve had so far this year, we could be looking at a full year gain of 10% and the S&P 500 for 2024 and that’s a very respectable gain, especially coming off the 24% gain that we saw in 2023. You still in yield to rate cut camp. Yeah. So we are still in the in the two rate cup camp. We believe that the Fed will cut rates two times starting in September. Earlier in the year, we were in the three ready cut camps, sorry. And we’ve softened that and our Fed expectations somewhat. We think the odds of a sustainable reacceleration of inflation are low. We think consumer spending won’t be as strong going forward as it was the past few months. And also that shelter cost will continue to be reflected in a more favorable way to the inflation print. So that’s why we still think the two rate cuts are on the table for this year. Yeah, I mean and I tried to impart this earlier. I know today was scary at the beginning, GDP not good Julie, but we were. We’re actually still higher on the week. I mean markets well off their lows. It’s like we’re acting like it’s doom and gloom, but stocks are still higher for the week. I mean there is an underlying bid I think to the market. Yeah. I mean, I think that there is still more upside ahead in stocks, although more muted earnings will be the key to turning around the mood of the market, which has been negative in recent weeks. I think it’s important to stay invested and and we still think there’s opportunities out there primarily within tech and believe that there are pullbacks in tech and other sectors that that are opportunities. Yeah, crazy. What’s the next most most important thing to you? Is it corporate earnings? Is that PCE tomorrow, Is it something else, Julie, Yeah, I think we need to, you know, keep an eye on just, you know, some of the key things in the market we still have. The other GDP reports that we’ll have coming up and then we need to keep an eye on what’s going on, you know, outside of that geopolitical tensions and and some of the other risks that could be out there with the inflation as as we continue to keep an eye on what’s going on with interest rates in the Fed. Julie Fox, thank you very much. Appreciate your views as always.