Bank of America strategist on why gold prices could climb to $3,000 per ounce

Few things coming together I think, but the first, the first point I would make is what has actually taken go to where we are right now. When you’re looking at some of the traditional relationships, we’ve been discussing for a while that real rates and the dollar have kind of not really correlated very well with gold prices recently. And so you’re looking at some of the underlying flows. What we’ve seen most very strong is Chinese investment demand, strong central bank buying and then to some extent options buying. But all of that not really linked necessarily to the real rates in the dollar. Now, the last thing that is still missing are the inflows from the from from Western, Western investors like the ETF buying. And that we basically said, if all of those other three factors still hold in place and then you get the ETF buying, the Western investment buying coming through as a Fed eventually starts cutting rates, then you have got core price. The potential China central bank has been the big player, right? I mean, I say that just because in terms of central banks buying gold Chinese, the the PBOC has been pretty much the the big one in this. But what about high net worth individuals also getting into the space is, is that something you’re seeing as well happening? Yeah, we see, I see on the PBOC and the Chinese central bank buying. Absolutely. I think they’ve been on fire in terms of their purchase. But it’s not just the Chinese. I think you have a lot of other regional central banks purchasing as well on the wealth management side. When we go out and talk to the wealth managers, there is certainly also interest, but it particularly in in, in in Europe to some extent in the US as well. The underlying tenure is still that you want to see the first rate cuts from the Fed and potentially A weaker dollar accompanying that to have a clean shot at higher gold prices and therefore increasing exposure. Is there a danger at getting into gold at this entry price, particularly if you’re looking at it as a hedge? Look, there’s always, always risks after a rally. As strong as it was to me, I think when I look at the next 6 to 12 months, I have one set of market participants, again, the Western investors, which have so far not really participated and we know why. So ultimately, we could well have a period of consolidation now also if Chinese sentiment gets better and we see less investment inflows from the Chinese. But ultimately, when I look at how macro is going to shape up in the next 12 months, I think there’s scope for gold prices still to move higher. What’s going on with copper? We keep talking about fragmentation risks and that this is going to undermine the global economy. Doctor, copper is meant to be something that’s attached to global dynamics. But that said, we know that there’s a a new transition taking place, a green transition that brings copper to the fore. So how do we think about copper now, Doctor? Copper is going to become Doctor Green. I think you had it in your previous in your previous contribution. I think the world is effectively pushing very hard still on the energy transition and you can’t facilitate A decarbonisation or electrification effectively of the global economy without copper. You need that pretty much everywhere. So the demand side actually looks OK and then you’re looking at the supply side. For the last 10 years, the miners have under invested in capacity. I think mining CapEx last year globally was $104 billion. You really need closer to 130 at a minimum to make sure that you’re not running out of copper on the way to net zero. And what we’re seeing at the moment is because of that under investment in the past decade, those supply shortages are starting to bite. And that’s I think where copper prices gets a bit from.