The market breadth has been incredibly strong, says Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton

Let’s get back to the market. Talk technicals with Katie Stockton, a fair lead strategy. She’s the founder and managing partner and a CNBC contributor. Let’s start trying to touch on everything, but let’s start with the S&P, which has been slowly, steadily, not even slowly, but but I don’t know if it’s melting up yet but it’s been a an impressive advance with no pull backs. With No 2% pull backs. It’s true. Yeah. What does that mean for for how the duration of this and it is it broadening at this at this point, Yeah, I think it is healthy as long as it has that broadening trend. The breath has been incredibly strong. Yesterday was a great example. We had NVIDIA pulling back and yet the ratio of up to down volume on the NYSE was 6 to 1. So we’ve really seen breath kick in here. The cumulative advanced decline line for the NYSE is at a new all time high. So and that’s really as of yesterday, it’s not a decisive breakout that would be another positive development. But just generally speaking, we do want to see the breath data trending higher with the market and I think that’s what contributes to the sustainability. What was your last resistance level when you were on because we’re past, oh goodness, yeah, I know 4819 was final resistance for the so now you don’t know hundred, well now it’s NA. So you know I think we were able to arrive at upside objectives. There was one from a breakout we had in Q4 and that was around 5220 which guess what has been met. So this would be a natural place for consolidation, but we just don’t have indications of that right now. The momentum still, as you know, very, very strong and we can arrive at a more aggressive target from that breakout above 4819 of about 6120. And it’s been our belief that that’s more relevant for 2025, OK, 2025 S at this point, what is within the S&P or within, let’s say like even include the Russell, Is it, is it small caps now outperforming or do they still have more work to do to catch up? They definitely have a lot of work to do to catch up, but we have seen some signs of strength there, both an absolute and relative terms like is that bullish 2000, I think that’s also bullish. It reflects the breath expanding to small and mid, it shows risk appetite and we’re seeing that in other asset classes as well. So generally speaking quite good and it doesn’t look nearly as extended just in its appearance as of course the S&P 500 would. How long would you say gold was in a a consolidation phase of years, multi years, you know, multi year, yeah, something close to that. So what could where, where could we go? Yeah, You know the breakout above that 2063 threshold was a big deal for us and it allowed us to arrive at an objective intermediate term of about 20 to 80. That’s not too far off. But longer term of about 2500 for the price of gold, we think it’ll be sort of a slow moving ship that direction, but the momentum is there And even right now as of yesterday, we have what looks like we call it a flag breakout on the charts. It’s when you have a sharp up move consolidation and then a short term breakout. So in a similar vein, I guess if you believe it, if you believe that it’s digital property, Bitcoin is also in a for an upside objective. Is this is true? Yeah, new all time highs, that’s what happens. And I mean I believe in the uptrend at least it has very good momentum. The pullback that we saw, it looks like nothing on the chart. It’s pretty remarkable ’cause it was 1718% of downside, but it looks like a it really is. And now of course within like you know days we’ve had a resumption higher. So I feel pretty good about the trend there as well. The breakout creates a a long term catalyst for Bitcoin too. It’s always going to be higher beta, you know this spread to the 50 day moving average. I looked at it this morning, it was something like 1314% versus the S&P, which is about 4%. So those are initial support readings, but that’s just the risk that you take by commodities in general. And and we actually a couple years ago that that one guy we have on the oil guy said we’re in a super cycle, We in a super cycle, commodities are rallying, aren’t they? And it feels also broad based that’s where the commodity complex, right. So I think we really need the energy complex within the broader commodity space to kick in, in a more meaningful way though it’s an 80 even, yeah, so there’s resistance for crude oil around 83. Above that we start talking about mid 90s and that to me would be more meaningful because it still looks like a long term trading range. I think this stocks are anticipating that kind of breakout. We’ve had a really good action bottom up recently in the energy sector. They’re still mostly range bound longer term though, so it’s not decisive yet. And then that gas is Nat gas, right? We have a a proper downtrend there. Coco. Becky. Becky likes the crappy little hollow bunnies instead of Easter instead of the salt. The kids don’t want the salt. I hope people, I hope people get you a lot of those things that just crumble in your they just sit on your counter half eaten. You never eat any of these things, right? I know it’s true. No. So let’s not talk. Let’s talk 10 year, the 10 year note then what’s your latest read on what’s happening there because now we, I don’t know, I don’t know if we’re going to get cuts or not. I don’t know whether that’s what I was trying to figure out. I’ve been sitting here wrecking I, I mean you could see both sides of it, right. So the end result on 10 year yields has really been neutral, a bit of a tug of war in the action yields and the consolidation phase. We’ve been saying we we could see maybe four or five out of the 10 year before it rolls over again. But the loss of long term upside momentum is pretty meaningful behind yields and that goes across the spectrum. So we feel that it’s, it’s capped in a way. So it may be more of a neutral to lower environment that characterizes this year and part of next. It’s a big statement. I mean that’s if we knew 4 1/2 was it that that says a lot about it. I’ll make it bigger when I I actually think mid threes is realistic for the next year or so. Then you tell me where inflation is going to be then too, aren’t you? Yes. It doesn’t look like it’s going to rear its head back to 40 year highs causing 7 or 8% on the that’s yeah I would say no not not based on maybe Wallace shouldn’t be so there maybe we ought to cut then and I mean look to be fair metal to the Waller said we need to he he said he needed to see at least a few more months data before he would feel comfortable cutting. He didn’t say no to this year for sure. He said he now that we’ve seen he feels uncomfortable with the last couple of months data, he thinks if they’re going to cut they should see a couple of months at the market. Definitely liked that. Yeah, show it coming back down just to be safe, right. I don’t know whether the 10 year controls inflationary expectations or vice vice versa. Plus it’s sort of the it’s remarkable how tenure yields used to drive the market last year and now it’s NVIDIA. Yeah, the the focus has changed and I think it’s really just because it’s been more neutral. It’s not a directional bias that you can, I mean it’s been parabolic almost and that’s true. And we have actually one of those demark counter trend signals, you know Tom demarks indicators, it’s a short term signal that it reacted to over the last two or three days and it would suggest we see another week or two of downside which would be it. It shouldn’t be a big deal, but it would feel like it because it’s really not looked back. So I think we’ll pull back, a deeper pull back is likely and it’ll be interesting to see how the market fares. That could be the 2% pull back in the market that that could could coincide or or maybe it won’t won’t.