Tasmania's Legislative Council elections likely to deliver first-ever Greens upper house member

Liberal candidate Kerry Vincent, Greens candidate Cassy O’Connor (centre) and independent Bec Thomas are considered the frontrunners for upcoming Tasmanian Legislative Council elections in Prosser, Hobart and Elwick. (ABC News)

After decades of attempts, the Greens look all but certain to claim a history-making seat in Tasmania’s upper house.

Former Greens leader Cassy O’Connor is well ahead in the race for the seat of Hobart, with political experts declaring she’s too far in front to be caught.

Before counting resumed on Monday, Ms O’Connor had secured 37.2 per cent of the vote, well clear of the nearest challenger, independent John Kelly on 22.1 per cent.

Her victory caps a successful few months for the party, after it grew its number of lower house MPs from two to five at last month’s state election.

University of Tasmania adjunct associate professor Kate Crowley, an expert in green politics and environmental policy, said the result was “a huge step” for the party after 40 years in parliament.

“In Tasmania, that upper house has always been the preserve of quite conservative independents, particularly name-brand independents, so this is a big deal,” she said.

She said it was hard to read too much into the victory given Hobart and the lower house electorate of Clark were “two of the greenest seats going”.

“We’ll have to wait and see how big a step forward it is for the party and we won’t really know until we see how they capitalise on these gains,” she said.

In July, Ms O’Connor quit the lower house and the party leadership to announce her intention to run in the seat of Hobart.

Associate Professor Crowley said that decision had paid huge dividends, with the party significantly expanding its numbers in a larger house of assembly under the leadership of Rosalie Woodruff.

“I think we can’t overstate that this is an absolute renewal for the Greens. I think before the election they were definitely spinning their wheels as a party. They hadn’t gone anywhere much for years in terms of their support at elections,” she said.

“They’ve got new energy. They’ve got a new set of individuals from a younger generation, including some quite seasoned activists even though they’re relatively young, and they’ve broken into the Legislative Council.”

Dr Woodruff said the party wouldn’t “count our chickens yet” but was hopeful Ms O’Connor would win the seat.

“The Greens ran a campaign that was clear about the issues that we will be fighting for action on: protection for forests, cost of living relief, secure and affordable homes and a health system overhaul,” she said.

“Things are looking good for the Greens in the seat of Hobart, that’s no surprise, Cassy is an outstanding candidate with vast experience and a compassionate heart.”

Psephologist Kevin Bonham said Ms O’Connor’s win wouldn’t significantly change the balance of power in the Legislative Council.

“But it will change the dynamic of the place in terms of Ms O’Connor having a different dynamic to [retiring MP] Rob Valentine and also in terms of the Greens having members in both houses. It will be interesting to see how that plays out,” he said.

“The Legislative Council can be a more sedate place of careful consideration and Ms O’Connor’s style is more high profile. It will be interesting to see how she adapts and how the place adapts to her.”

Sorell mayor to win in Prosser

Former Labor party leader Bryan Green looks set to be defeated by Liberal and Sorell mayor Kerry Vincent, who leads with 38.7 per cent of the primary vote.

Mr Vincent stopped short of claiming victory on Sunday, but said he was “very happy” with how the count was progressing.

“They tell me I’ve got a good chance of winning. There’s still quite a few votes to be counted and the trend is quite strong for me at this stage,” he said.

“It’s a huge area to try to cover during such a short election campaign but we’ve covered it as best we can and to receive that support is just humbling.”

A victory would ensure the Liberals kept four upper house MPs, after former MLC Jane Howlett was elected to the lower house seat of Lyons.

Northern suburbs battleground still up for grabs

In the northern suburbs electorate of Elwick, the vote remains too close to call.

In a by-election triggered by Labor MP Josh Willie’s move to the lower house, Glenorchy mayor and independent candidate Bec Thomas remains narrowly in front with 34 per cent of the primary vote, 5 per cent ahead of Labor’s Tessa McLaughlin.

Dr Bonham said it was too hard to call a winner.

“Under normal circumstances, Ms Thomas would win easily on preferences from a Green and a left-wing independent,” he said.

“But this is not normal because of the nature of the Elwick campaign, in particular some of the criticisms made of Ms Thomas during the campaign both over the council and over links to the Liberal Party.”

Ms Thomas has repeatedly denied that she is linked to the Liberal Party, saying Elwick needed an independent voice.

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