After battling an intense summer, Aussies can breathe a sigh of relief as the Bureau of Meteorology declares El Nino has officially ended.
The Bureau confirmed on Tuesday the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had returned to neutral.
It’s expected this phase of the Pacific Ocean will last until at least July before the possibility of La Nina is declared.
However, Sky News senior meteorologist said Rob Sharpe said it was still too early to forecast whether this would occur.
Summer of El Nino declared over
“I believe that the odds are high for a dramatic swing to La Nina in the coming months,” Mr Sharpe said.
“This is based on a number of factors including the history of events moving from El Nino to La Nina, the very cool waters just under the Pacific Ocean and the strong model consensus that La Nina will take shape.”
The Bureau also warned that early predictions for La Nina were to be made “with caution”.
“While three out of seven international models are predicting central Pacific SSTs to reach La Nina thresholds in July, El Niño and La Nina predictions made in mid-autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year,” the Bureau stated. “This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond July should be used with caution.”
For an El Nino event to be declared over, all of the oceanic and atmospheric indicators need to return to normal – with the ocean finally doing so last week.
The Bureau confirmed sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific had been steadily cooling since December.
There was “substantial cooling over the last fortnight” leading indicators to show the historical thresholds have now reached the neutral phase of ENSO, according to the Bureau.
Australia also recorded it’s wettest December to March since 2010, with 24 per cent more rain than normal.
Meanwhile, two Tropical Lows could possibly form later this week.
The Bureau forecasts Tropical Low 14U could form in the northeast Coral Sea mid to late this week.
There is a five per cent chance at this stage that 14U may develop into a tropical cyclone on April 21 or April 22.
“The movement of 14U is expected to be generally slow moving during the weekend and then towards the south or southeast, away from the Queensland coast,” the Bureau stated.
A second tropical low, 15U, is also forecast to form between Australia and Papua New Guinea later by the weekend.
“The movement is most likely to the southwest, towards the Northern Territory but a track that moves southeast, east of Cape York also remains a possibility at this stage,” the Bureau stated.
The risk of 15U becoming a tropical cyclone remains low from later Friday into early next week.
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