El Niño occurs when there’s a change in the typical pattern of sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared the El Niño event that gripped the Pacific Ocean over summer to be over.
The southern oscillation index has returned to a “neutral” state, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in effect.
Nonetheless, the Bureau has forecast higher than median average temperatures for most of Australia in the coming months, including a chance for “unusually warm” conditions in parts of the east and the west.
No forecast has been issued for the next phase of the SOI.
El Niño years are followed by ENSO-neutral years about 50 per cent of the time, the BoM said.
El Niño years are followed by La Niña years about 40 per cent of the time, and in about 10 per cent of years an El Niño year has been followed by another El Niño year.
This El Niño event was preceded by three successive La Niña events.
El Niño conditions are typically clarified by higher temperatures and less rainfall, particularly over summer.
However, Australia’s summer was more characterised by floods than bushfires, similar to preceding La Niña years.
But the Bureau of Meteorology says “no two El Niño events are the same, and their impact on Australia varies”.
“This is particularly true of summer months”, a Bureau spokesman said in January.
“Once the northern monsoon arrives, the influence of both El Niño and a positive IOD is diminished, and the chance of summer rainfall events increases.”
They report that contrary to being exclusively dry, up to half of the past El Niño events have actually included heavy rainfall, particularly across parts of eastern Australia.
Other factors also influenced Australia’s summer rainfall, including strong westerly winds blowing close to Antarctica.
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