Straight-line speed and rear-end stability concerns for Mercedes ahead of Miami

Mercedes W15 front wing and nose assembly

Formula 1 heads to Miami this week for another Sprint race, marking the first showdown of the year on the American continent, and one that could come with a few problems for Mercedes.

Miami presents a highly specific track from a technical standpoint for several reasons. So, let’s take a look at how the teams have prepared for this race, what aerodynamic packages we can expect to see, and most importantly, which teams are best suited for such a circuit.

Miami GP race track characteristics

Miami is a newcomer to the Formula 1 calendar, and teams lack as much data and, more importantly, experience as they do for other more frequent races in the competition. The track is mostly flat and designed to loop around the famous Hard Rock Stadium, which will serve as the paddock for the teams during the Formula 1 visit.

The track is primarily characterised by fast corners and long straights, with several medium-speed corners and a short, very slow section. Therefore, teams will focus on achieving high maximum speeds and try to minimise drag to avoid losing time on the straights.

Miami GP features three DRS zones, and most overtaking manoeuvres are expected to occur within them, primarily before entering T11 and T17.

Miami’s asphalt offers very little grip, and we believe this will be the engineers’ main challenge. If drivers fail to quickly heat up their tires, the time penalty will be significant.

Additionally, considering Miami is a rear-limited track (meaning the track combined with the car will likely induce oversteer), teams like Mercedes, which have rear-end stability issues, may face difficulties here.

Another significant factor is track evolution, which is quite high with lap times constantly decreasing, particularly noticeable during qualifying. It will be crucial for teams to decide when to send their drivers out onto the track, keeping in mind that everyone aims to go out as late as possible.

Last year, we had a race with only one pit stop, which automatically implies less variation in teams’ tactics and less excitement for us viewers. Pirelli has chosen midrange C2, C3, and C4 tyres for this track, and it’s highly likely that we’ll see only one tyre change again this year in Miami.

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Aero packages for the Miami Grand Prix

Aero packages for the Miami race vary significantly from team to team, and it will be fascinating to see who has done the best job. As mentioned, achieving a good balance between long straights, fast corners, and the car’s stability, which is disrupted by low grip, is crucial.

In the image above, we can see the configurations of the top four teams currently in the standings, and the differences are indeed substantial.

We mentioned that Mercedes will struggle with the rear-end in Miami, confirmed by the medium-high load. The lower plane of the rear wing is very deep, and we can already argue that Mercedes won’t have good maximum speeds on the straights. Whether they can compensate for their deficit elsewhere on the track remains to be seen.

On the other hand, we have Red Bull Racing and Ferrari, which have brought medium-low aero packages.

They are expected to be very fast on the straights, but there’s a big question mark over how quickly Ferrari can heat up their tyres and whether this will cost them performance on such a low-grip track.

McLaren, who have arrived in America with minor upgrades, are in the middle in terms of aero packages.

Williams are the team that has opted for the least loaded rear wing, aiming for good speeds on the straights, which has been their positive trait for the past two seasons. It’s truly incredible when you look at the difference between Mercedes and Williams – yet they’re racing on the same track.

Another interesting technical decision comes from the French team, Alpine, who have decided to split strategies and assign different aero packages to its drivers.

Alpine probably wants to gather valuable data during the first test, after which they will likely decide on one variant. It’s worth noting that Alpine now have an improved floor design on both cars, which proved to be a good step forward in China.

Miami GP is also unique in another aspect, and that’s managing and consuming electrical energy during the race. Since we don’t have many strong braking zones, it will be much harder for drivers to recharge their batteries, which will later affect their consumption.

This could somewhat influence the race itself and the number of overtaking manoeuvres we’ll see on Sunday. However, considering that we saw a good number of overtakes on the Miami track last year, we believe spectators can expect an entertaining weekend above all.