Stakes high for Ontario Liberals and Tories in Milton byelection

Polls aren’t everything, but new numbers suggest next week’s by election in Milton is anybody’s race to win or lose. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals now just two points ahead of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. This is of course a by election, so it’s not going to change the government, but there is still a lot at stake in the results. If Doug Ford is going to be re elected, he has to be re elected in places like Milton. He can’t really lose to any seats like this. Voters in the swing riding will pick a new MPP Thursday after a Ford government minister resigned to run for the federal Tories. The Liaison Strategy survey has a margin of error of about 5 percentage points, meaning Liberal candidate Galen Naidu Harris and PC candidate Zee Hamid are in a virtual deadlock. Why does it matter if Doug Ford’s PCs lose Milton on Thursday? This is a very key warning sign. If he loses this that maybe that critical nine O 5 belt, not just Milton but also Mississauga, Brampton, Durham, York, that those seats could also be in play. I think the government has to be paying very close attention to what’s happening in Milton. Conservative strategist Andrew Brander notes the Ford government has thrown significant resources at the seats, including building all day two way go train service to Milton. Cabinet ministers and Ford himself have been door knocking in Milton for Hameed, who was an active Liberal until a few weeks ago. That’s not something that the Conservatives have necessarily shield away from. They’ve they’ve talked about building this broader coalition. To have a sitting cabinet minister give up his seat to to seek a federal nomination in the same riding is is something that is very uncommon and and really speaks to the fact that they’ll want to retain that seat. For Bonnie Crombie, the by election will be a key test of her leadership and whether it was the right call for her to opt out of running in Milton where she could have gained a seat in the legislature to hold the government to account. Bonnie has been clear from day one she has a mandate to rebuild this party. Liberal strategist Andrew Perez says the party’s political fortunes have been improving since unexpectedly winning two by elections in the last year. And the latest polling adds to the momentum. Is this perhaps a sign, another sign that the Liberals may be rising from the ashes? You know, I think it is when you have a party that has eight or nine seats, that doesn’t enjoy official party status that begins winning, not just one, two. And let’s hope 3 By elections that I think you can read into that consistently. We’ve been seeing in the polls and surveys being released, not just by liaison, that the Liberals are in second place. And that is also not good news for the NDP, who formed Official Opposition in the last election. Regardless of the result, Thursday, it will be close.