Satellite Data Hints at Russia's Depleting Armor Stocks
This illustrative image from April 24, 2024 shows an armored vehicle captured Russia claims to have captured in Ukraine, according to the Russian Defence ministry, at the Victory park WWII memorial complex in Moscow.
Nearly a third of Russia’s armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine are no longer in storage, according to satellite imagery cited by an open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst.
Ukraine’s General Staff gives a daily tally of what it says are approximate losses of Russian forces’ equipment, as well as troop casualties, and these numbers have spiked recently after months of high attrition amid an offensive in the eastern front and a bid to take the Donetsk city of Chasiv Yar.
As of Wednesday, Ukraine’s tally of losses of Russian AFVs, which, unlike main battle tanks (MBTs), are not used to break battle lines, was 14,246.
Newsweek is unable to verify these figures and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
Other estimates are lower but one tally by the X account Jompy drawing on satellite imagery of depots and repair plants in Russia signals the toll that the war is taking on Moscow’s stock of armored vehicles.
In a post on Monday, the account said Russia had 10,389 AFVs left in storage, down by 4,763 from pre-war stocks of 2021, for a total decrease of nearly 32 percent.
Among these, Russia faced the biggest losses of MT-LBs—a Soviet-era multi-purpose, amphibious, tracked armored fighting vehicle—with only 922 remaining compared with a pre-war supply of 2,527, according to the account.
The OSINT analyst said Moscow has also faced high losses of BMDs—a Soviet airborne amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicle, with only 244, or 38.3 percent of its pre-war stocks of 637 remaining.
Other high losses were noted of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, of which only 41.6 percent, or 52 remain compared with before the invasion. Russia no longer has in storage 708 of its later model BTR-60s, 70s and 80s, leaving 78.63 percent, or 2,605 of its pre-invasion supply of 3,313 remaining, per Jompy.
Although the post said there was not complete certainty on the figures, it added, “after spending so much time looking at Russian depots and repair plants and noticing trends, I think I have the right to be confident on my numbers.”
“While MT-LBs running out in storage, that won’t mean they’ll be gone from the battlefield too anytime soon as Russia probably fields 1000-2000 of those currently,” the post said.
As of Wednesday, the total Russian AFV losses estimated by the website Oryx, which draws on video or still imagery as evidence was 1,314, of which 919 were destroyed, 34 damaged, 94 abandoned, and 267 captured.
Oryx says the level of available evidence it draws on means that the amount of equipment destroyed is “significantly higher.”
Correction 5/8/24 1 p.m. ET: This article was updated to correct the name of the social media account of Jompy.
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