Sara leads 2028 presidential poll

TOP PRESIDENTIAL PICK IN 2028 (From left) Dr. Dennis Coronacion, Oculum chief political analyst; Dr. Racidon Bernarte, Oculum research head; and Felipe Salvosa II, moderator, present the results of a presidential survey to the media on Friday, April 26, 2024. The first-quarter opinion poll by Oculum and Research Analytics showed Vice President Sara Duterte as the top choice for president in 2028. PHOTO BY RIO DELUVIO

(UPDATE) VICE PRESIDENT Sara Duterte is the overwhelming choice for president in the 2028 elections, according to a survey by Oculum Research and Analytics.

Duterte gained the nod of 42 percent of the 3,000 respondents ages 18 and above randomly selected nationwide by Oculum.

Support for her was highest in Mindanao at 62 percent and lowest in Southern Luzon at 23 percent.

She also got the highest support from respondents in the Class E socioeconomic bracket, with 44 percent, and the lowest from Classes A and B.

Dr. Racidon Bernarte, Oculum Research head and managing director of the Asia-Pacific Consortium of Researchers and Educators Inc. (APCoRE), said Duterte had a more than 2-to-1 edge over Sen. Raffy Tulfo, the second-best choice for president, who garnered 17 percent.

“The leading candidate, Inday Sara Duterte, commands a significant proportion of the vote, placing her firmly at the top regarding public preference. This percentage indicates a substantial lead over other candidates and suggests a strong support base,” said Dr. Joseph Mercado, Oculum chief statistician.

Former vice president Ma. Leonor “Leni” Robredo placed third with 10 percent.

Statistically tied fourth to sixth are former Manila mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, Sen. Imee Marcos and former senator Manny Pacquiao.

Sen. Robin Padilla ranked seventh (2 percent) while Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez placed eighth (0.4 percent).

Respondents in the poll, which was commissioned, were shown a card with the names of the eight personalities on it and an explicit option not to make any choice (“wala pang pasya”).

The “undecided” accounted for 14 percent of the respondents.

Mercado said the considerable proportion of undecided showed that a “significant portion of the electorate remains uncertain about their choice.”

“This figure is important as it represents potential shifts in voter preference that could impact the election’s outcome. The fluidity in this demographic means that campaigns could influence these undecided voters, potentially altering the current rankings,” he said.

Oculum’s first-quarter national survey was conducted from February 21 to 29 in partnership with APCoRE, a professional organization of academics and researchers, and Areopagus Communications Inc.

Oculum polled 335 respondents from the National Capital Region, 645 from Northern and Central Luzon, 690 from Southern Luzon, 615 from the Visayas and 715 from Mindanao.

Mercado said that with a margin of error of ± 2 percentage points and a high confidence level of 97 percent, the survey presents a reliable and in-depth perspective of the current state of public opinion in the Philippines.

In the same survey, Duterte also received the highest satisfaction rating among top government officials with 75 percent, followed by Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri with 50 percent and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (49 percent).

The vice president was also the most trusted government official and personality with 76 percent, followed closely by Pope Francis with 71 percent.

In Oculum’s vice presidential survey, former president and Duterte’s father Rodrigo Duterte was the top choice with 27 percent, followed by Tulfo, Robredo, and Senators Marcos and Bong Go.

Duterte also led in the senatorial survey with 93 percent, followed by former senator Vicente Sotto III, Erwin Tulfo, Domagoso and Pacquiao.