‘Two-person race’: Haley and Trump face off in New Hampshire

New Hampshire: Nikki Haley was fired up. For weeks, the former UN ambassador had been attacked on two fronts as she competed for the Republican presidential nomination to run for the White House.

On one side was Donald Trump, whose incendiary remarks on everything from Haley’s intellect to her heritage as the daughter of Indian immigrants belied his concern that she was a bigger threat than he first anticipated.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event in Derry, New Hampshire.

On the other side was Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who had spent more time accusing Haley of not being a true conservative than he did responding to Trump’s endless mockery of him.

But DeSantis suspended his campaign on Sunday afternoon, two days before the all-important New Hampshire primaries, acknowledging he had no clear path to victory. Suddenly, the only woman in her party to seek the 2024 presidential nomination – and whose campaign pitch centred on a “new generation” of US leadership – was the last candidate standing against the former president.

“Can you hear that sound?” Haley asked the enthusiastic crowd that gathered at Exeter High School for a campaign rally on Sunday night.

“That’s the sound of a two-person race!“

It’s a testament to Haley’s personal grit and political credentials that she has managed to last this long while about a dozen high-profile candidates – from former vice-president Mike Pence to former New Jersey governor Chris Christie – have dropped out of the contest.

Trump, however, continues to dominate, despite facing 91 criminal charges, with polls showing he has strengthened his lead every time he has been indicted.

To that end, Tuesday’s primary race in New Hampshire represents a pivotal moment for the 2024 US election.

With DeSantis bowing out and Haley surging over the past few weeks, the big question is whether she can beat the overwhelming frontrunner – or at the very least shake things up as they head into the next round of primaries that will determine who runs against Joe Biden in November.

Former president Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire.

If Trump wins big in New Hampshire – one week after dominating in the Iowa caucuses – he will be seemingly unstoppable as he moves on to the South Carolina race next month, where polls currently suggest he is expected to beat Haley in her home state.

That, in turn, would propel him into Super Tuesday on March 5 – when the greatest number of states hold primaries and caucuses – and eventually onto being announced as GOP’s nominee at the Republican convention in June.

But if Haley gets a good result, it might actually prompt voters who are tired of Trump’s drama to rally behind another candidate – and that’s exactly what she’s banking on.

“I voted for Donald Trump twice; I was proud to serve in his administration; and I agree with a lot of his policies – but rightly or wrongly, chaos follows,” Haley said on the campaign trail in New Hampshire this week.

“And we can’t have a country in disarray, and a world on fire, and go through four more years of chaos. We won’t survive it.”

For now, the conventional wisdom is that Trump’s march towards the White House is all but assured.

According to a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released this week, Trump is the first choice for 50 per cent of likely Republican primary voters, widening his lead over Haley, who has 39 per cent support. Desantis was on a dismal 6 per cent, cementing his decision to drop out of the race.

One by one, Trump’s former rivals have also endorsed him: North Dakota governor Doug Burgum; biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; even US Senator Tim Scott, who Haley appointed to the Senate when she was the governor of South Carolina.

Now DeSantis has fallen in line, too – the man Trump mocked for months as “Meatball Ron” or “Ron DeSanctimonious”.

In doing so, the Florida governor cited a pledge all candidates were required to sign as a condition for taking part in the first Republican debate in August (in which Trump was notably absent): to endorse the chosen nominee.

Trump is also looking confident, travelling around New Hampshire stepping up his attacks – and many of them are personal.

He has often cited Haley’s given name, “Nimarata” Nikki Randhawa, as a dog whistle to remind people she was the daughter of Indian immigrants.

He refers to her as “Birdbrain” to insult her intelligence, and has told supporters at his rallies that “she’s not smart enough” to be president.

And he’s started spreading birther conspiracy theories suggesting she was ineligible to run for president because her parents were not US citizens when Haley was born.

Haley, however, has taken it in her stride. Since announcing her candidacy last year, the 52-year-old has campaigned on the notion that “it’s time to get America back on track.”

In addition to calling for a “new generational leader” she has also pushed for fixed term limits in Congress, and mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75.

But her most potent argument is when she cites polls showing she’s the only Republican in the race who could beat Biden in a head to head match-up. One Wall Street Journal poll put her ahead with a 17 point margin.

As Haley explained to voters this week: “That’s more than just the presidency – that’s getting everything back on track, from the House, the Senate, governorships, school boards – all those things. We’d walk into DC with a mandate.”

As much as Trump is dominating this contest, there is a small path for Haley to shake up the race.

Like Iowa, New Hampshire is whiter and more rural than the average US state, but almost 40 per cent of its electorate are independents.

These voters tend to be more moderate – and they will be able to cast a vote in the ballot.

New Hampshire also has a popular moderate Republican governor, Chris Sununu, who endorsed Haley over Trump.

All these factors could potentially benefit the former UN ambassador, whose appeal is largely confined to moderate and college-educated voters.

What’s more, New Hampshire is a state that’s known for its contrarian streak and election surprises.

In 2008, for instance, George W Bush won the Iowa caucuses and was the overwhelming frontrunner heading into New Hampshire – only to face a massive upset by John McCain.

Similarly, in 2008, Barack Obama shocked the Democratic establishment by winning Iowa against Hillary Clinton, but was narrowly defeated by her in the New Hampshire primaries.

Could it be Nikki Haley’s moment to shine?

“I’m used to people underestimating me. It’s always fun,” she said as she met with voters at a diner minutes after DeSantis’ announcement.

“But there were 14 people in this race, and now there are two. I’m gonna finish this.”

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