Australian Open best bets: Breaking down the two finals

Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus.

It’s been an exhausting few weeks of 3:30 a.m. Eastern Time matches (and 3:30 a.m. Australian Eastern Time finishes … thanks, Medvedev, for all those endless five-setters) but we’ve made it to the finals of the Australian Open. Just four athletes remain: Belarus’ Aryna Sabalenka, China’s Qinwen Zheng, Russia’s Daniil Medvedev and Italy’s Jannik Sinner.

Missing from both the women’s and men’s finals are our world No. 1s: Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokovic. Swiatek crashed out unexpectedly in the third round against Czech player Linda Noskova, while Djokovic played perhaps the worst game of his recent career against Sinner in the semifinals. It’s strange to enter the finals without either of them, but it speaks to the depth of both women’s and men’s tennis at this time. There are killers all up and down the rankings — being No. 1 isn’t any sort of guarantee.

If you’ve got another couple of late nights in you, these two finals should be excellent entertainment. Here’s how we see them going down:

Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs Qinwen Zheng (15). Forget everything you hear about this match being one-sided: it doesn’t matter. Yes, Sabalenka is the defending champion. Yes, she’s on an absolute tear at this tournament. Yes, she’s got exactly the kind of explosive, volcanic power that should cause Zheng trouble. But it’s still thrilling to see Zheng in the final at all — she’s one of the bright lights of women’s tennis right now, someone we’re lucky to see playing this many games.

Zheng’s 2024 season started with a massive blow: her coach, Wim Fissette, abandoned her to help manage Naomi Osaka’s return to top-flight tennis. Zheng brought on Coco Gauff’s former coach Pere Riba and and regrouped, and while she hasn’t exactly been tested thus far  — she didn’t play a single top 50 opponent at this Open — she’s looked slick and competent at every turn.

So yes, Sabalenka should win this one. Fans of the Belarusian’s game might want to back her doing it in two sets at -188; fans of Zheng’s determination and guile might want to opt for a Sabalenka victory in three sets at +275 instead.

Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Jannik Sinner (4). This is the first men’s singles final at the Australian Open since 2005 that doesn’t feature one of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. It’s a clear sign that momentum in men’s tennis is shifting toward the young guns — and that’s a wonderful thing for all neutral viewers of the sport.

Medvedev’s and Sinner’s semifinal journeys could not have been more different. Medvedev huffed, puffed, cursed, mishit and eventually muscled his way through a wild five-set saga with Germany’s Alexander Zverev, while Sinner casually thwacked ball after ball past a shattered-looking Novak Djokovic. In a way, those semifinals are perfectly emblematic of each man’s position in the world of men’s tennis. Medvedev is confusing and idiosyncratic, somehow both the least consistent and most consistent man on the tour, while Sinner is wise beyond his 22 years, a paragon of maturity and control.

When it comes to a choice between flailing chaos and icy calm in a one-match setting, we’re always going to back the former. Accordingly, we’ve got our eyes on Medvedev winning the Australian Open at +225. Bettors looking for longer odds might want to consider choosing Medvedev in five sets at +650 — he’s needed that many to close it out in three of his six matches this tournament.

As for Sinner? It almost doesn’t matter if he wins this tournament or not, because 2024 is set to be a breakout season for the Italian. We can’t wait to see what he does next.

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